Fertility After a Large-Scale Disaster

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请寻求资金，以检查人口变化后，最近的大规模灾难，2004年印度洋海啸。我们的目标是阐明的时间，速度和生育率的决定因素，在印度尼西亚的社区，暴露于一个连续的破坏。为了做到这一点，我们从一个非常不寻常的数据集-海啸后果和恢复（星星）的研究-在2004年至2010年期间收集了来自印度尼西亚两个省的500多个社区。这项研究包括印度尼西亚被完全摧毁的地区以及没有受到海啸影响的社区。因此，这些数据支持一种治疗-对照设计来研究灾难的影响。由于基线调查是在2004年进行的，因此调查代表了灾害发生前的人口，对事件发生前的调查对象（N~ 40 000）了解很多。在海啸发生五个月后开始收集这些受访者、他们的家庭、社区和服务提供者的数据。在事件发生后的五年里，大约每年进行一次重新访谈。我们的目标是通过比较严重受损和未受损地区的总生育率的时间趋势来捕捉生育率对灾难的反应的时间和演变。然后，我们开发了一系列多层次的风险模型，研究灾后生育率的时间如何响应灾前属性，灾害暴露和生育前因的时间变化-如避孕药具的可用性和经济稳定性-在事件发生后。在灾害发生前对受访者进行的测量提供了一种手段，可以将观察到的生育率变化归因于灾害改变的机制。拟议中的研究既告知我们的理解在印度尼西亚的灾后环境，并提供了更大的问题，人口对人口创伤的人口反应的理论见解。特别重要的是，我们有能力评估为什么生育率在灾害背景下会发生变化-这是一条尚未开发的调查路线，对改善恢复政策和解释现代生育率趋势有着明确的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application seeks funding to examine demographic change after a recent large-scale disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. We aim to elucidate the timing, pace, and determinants of fertility in Indonesian communities that were exposed to a continuum of destruction. To do so, we draw from a highly unusual data set - the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR) - collected during 2004-2010 in over 500 communities from two provinces of Indonesia. The study includes regions of Indonesia that were completely destroyed as well as communities that were not exposed to the tsunami. The data thus support a treatment-control design to study the disaster's effects. Because the baseline survey was conducted in 2004, the survey is representative of population before the disaster, and much is known about the survey respondents before the event (N~40,000). Data on these respondents, their families, their communities, and their service providers were collected beginning five months after the tsunami. Re- interview occurred approximately annually for five years after the event. We aim to capture the timing and the evolution of a fertility response to the disaster by comparing temporal trends in aggregate fertility in the heavily damaged and undamaged regions. We then develop a series of multilevel hazard models that examine how the timing of post-disaster fertility responded to pre-disaster attributes, disaster exposure, and temporal shifts in fertility antecedents - such as contraceptive availability and economic stability - in the wake of the event. Measurement of respondents prior to the disaster provides a means of causally attributing observed fertility changes to mechanisms shifted by the disaster. The proposed research both informs our understanding of the post-disaster environment in Indonesia and provides theoretical insights for larger questions regarding demographic response to population trauma. Of particular importance is our ability to assess why fertility changes in the context of disaster - an underdeveloped line of inquiry with clear implications for improving recovery policy and interpreting modern fertility trends.