Preferences, expectations, and the prediction of health and economic behavior

偏好、期望以及健康和经济行为的预测

• 批准号: 8533802
• 负责人: HARSHA THIRUMURTHY
• 金额: $ 12.76万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-15 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8533802
• 关键词: AIDS prevention; AIDS/HIV problem; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Address; Adopted; Affect; Affective; Africa; Africa South of the Sahara; Age; Applied Psychology; Area; Attitude; Behavior; Behavioral; Capital; Characteristics; Choice Behavior; Cognitive Science; Country; Data; Data Analyses; Data Collection; Decision Making; Developing Countries; Development; Discipline; Disease; Econometric Models; Economic Development; Economics; Elements; Emotions; Environment; Epidemic; Evaluation; Family; Family Life Surveys; Feeling; Fertilization; Foundations; Future; Goals; HIV; HIV Infections; Health; Health Personnel; Health Policy; Health Technology; Health behavior; Health care facility; High Prevalence; Household; Human; Incentives; Individual; Intervention; Investigation; Investments; K-Series Research Career Programs; Kenya; Lead; Life; Life Expectancy; Life Experience; Literature; Male Circumcision; Measurement; Measures; Medical; Methods; Mexican; Mexico; Modeling; Paper; Personal Computers; Pilot Projects; Play; Policies; Positioning Attribute; Prevention approach; Preventive Intervention; Probability; Procedures; Property; Psychology; Psychometrics; Public Health; Randomized; Randomized Controlled Trials; Research; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Respondent; Risk; Risk Behaviors; Risk-Taking; Role; Science; Scientist; Shapes; Survey Methodology; Surveys; Tablets; Techniques; Testing; Thinking; Time; To specify; Training; Training Activity; Training Programs; Variant; Visual; Work; base; career development; cost; design; discount; economic behavior; economic implication; expectation; experience; insight; literacy; mortality; new technology; population based; preference; psychologic; public health relevance; research study; response; scale up; social; socioeconomics; stem; theories; tool; trait

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): HIV/AIDS has led to substantial declines in life expectancy in many parts of Africa. This may be causing people to alter their forward-looking behaviors in ways that are deleterious to future development prospects. At the same time, there is an increasing emphasis on the scale-up of HIV prevention interventions such as male circumcision. Understanding people's behavioral responses to declining life expectancy and their decisions to take-up prevention interventions requires data on their risk preferences, inter-temporal preferences, and subjective life expectancy - all of which play a central role in models of individual decision-making. However, these attitudes are rarely measured in population-based socio-economic surveys in developing countries. The career development activities in this application will allow me to combine insights from economics and psychology and apply them in ways that provide a better understanding of individuals' health behaviors as well as their behavioral responses to reduced life expectancy. I will measure and validate individuals' preferences and expectations using state-of-the-art techniques and I will examine how people form, and revise, these attitudes. Specific aims include: (1) empirical examination and evaluation of survey- and experiment-based approaches to the elicitation of risk preferences, inter-temporal preferences, and survival expectations; (2) development of direct measures of these preferences and expectations for socio-economic surveys in Kenya; (3) an examination of the predictive power of these measures when studying the take-up of beneficial health interventions such as male circumcision; and (4) implementation of studies that will use data on survival expectations and establish their causal effect on individuals' investment behavior. The training component will enable me to (a) review methods and tools used to understand and measure preferences and expectations in psychology, and (b) gain practical experience in using data from Mexico on risk and inter-temporal preferences. The training program will put me in a position to become an independent scientist who integrates ideas from economics and psychology in order to arrive at a richer understanding of decision-making. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Properly measuring various aspects of individuals' attitudes - their risk preferences, inter-temporal preferences, and their survival expectations - is a necessary step toward empirically studying the many determinants of individuals' health behaviors. This in turn is critical for designing policies and interventions that can successfully promote healthy behavior. I will apply my training to the important public health challenge posed by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.

描述（由申请人提供）：艾滋病毒/艾滋病导致非洲许多地区的预期寿命大幅下降。这可能会导致人们改变他们的前瞻性行为，对未来的发展前景有害。与此同时，人们越来越强调扩大艾滋病毒预防干预措施，如男性包皮环切。了解人们对预期寿命下降的行为反应以及他们采取预防干预措施的决定，需要有关他们的风险偏好、跨期偏好和主观预期寿命的数据——所有这些都在个人决策模型中发挥着核心作用。然而，在发展中国家以人口为基础的社会经济调查中很少衡量这些态度。这个应用程序中的职业发展活动将使我能够结合经济学和心理学的见解，并以更好地理解个人健康行为以及他们对预期寿命缩短的行为反应的方式应用它们。我将使用最先进的技术测量和验证个人的偏好和期望，我将研究人们如何形成和修改这些态度。具体目标包括：(1)实证检验和评估基于调查和实验的方法，以引出风险偏好、跨期偏好和生存期望；(2)为肯尼亚的社会经济调查制定这些偏好和期望的直接措施；(3)在研究诸如男性包皮环切等有益健康干预措施的采用情况时，对这些措施的预测能力进行检验；(4)利用生存预期数据开展研究，确定其对个人投资行为的因果关系。培训部分将使我能够(a)回顾用于理解和衡量心理学偏好和期望的方法和工具，以及(b)获得使用墨西哥风险和跨期偏好数据的实践经验。这个培训项目将使我成为一名独立的科学家，将经济学和心理学的思想结合起来，从而对决策有更丰富的理解。