HEALTH OUTCOMES, RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES AND THE DIRECTION OF RESEARCH IN MEDICIN

项目#3：健康结果，研究机会和医学研究方向 在过去的世纪里，预期寿命急剧增长的一个重要原因是， 发展新的科学和生物医学知识。尽管这项研究很重要， 还没有任何全面的尝试来衡量医学研究和 随后的健康改善。也很少有学术兴趣在最富有成效的 在研究人员之间分配有限的研究资金。年轻的研究人员可能更有能力 将他们的研究导向卫生需求不断增加的地区，但要认识到最有生产力的地区 研究机会可能需要有经验的研究人员的智慧。发现这些反应是 重要的是预测美国生物医学研究人员的老龄化将如何改变研究和最佳政策。 在这个项目的第一部分，我们估计生物医学研究社区如何应对冲击， 研究机会和人口健康需求。我们将研究不同的研究人员 诸如职业阶段、资金的可获得性和合作者的特征等特征影响了 主题选择与疾病流行率之间的联系以及主题选择与 研究机会。某一类研究人员的微弱反应意味着， 研究人员以不考虑社会需要的方式制定自己的议程。 在这个项目的第二部分，我们估计了研究工作对一个国家的直接和间接影响。 疾病对健康的影响。我们将比较各种疾病的研究努力程度的变化 以及疾病特定健康结果的后续变化。这些分析考虑到了医疗保健 支出、生活方式和人口变化以及营利性医疗创新是影响 健康成果。我们还将估计基本的和更实用的医疗形式的间接影响， 研究通过对营利性医疗创新的影响对健康结果产生影响。结果将 在计算私人和公共资助医学研究的最佳水平时，这是一个重要的投入。 相关性（参见说明）： 在过去的世纪里，预期寿命急剧增加。该项目揭示了医疗的作用 研究如何提高预期寿命。该项目还研究了人口健康如何 需求影响不同职业阶段的研究主题选择，这将有助于预测 美国生物医学研究人员的老龄化将影响研究及其健康效益。

Project #3: Health Outcomes, Research Opportunities & the Direction of Research in Medicine One important reason for the dramatic increase in life expectancy over the past century is the development of new scientific and biomedical knowledge. Despite the importance of such research, there has not been any comprehensive attempt to measure the link between medical research and the subsequent improvements in health. There has also been little scholarly interest in the most productive allocation of limited research dollars across researchers. Young researchers may be better positioned to direct their research to areas with increasing health needs but recognizing areas with the most productive research opportunities may require the wisdom of experienced researchers. Uncovering these responses is important for predicting how aging of US biomedical researchers will alter research and optimal policy. In the first part of this project we estimate how biomedical research communities respond to shocks to research opportunities and population health needs. We will examine how different researcher characteristics such as career stage, availability of funding, and collaborators' characteristics influence the link between topic choice and disease prevalence as well as the link between topic choice and the quality of research opportunities. A weak response by researchers of a particular type would mean that the researchers set their own agenda in a way that does not take the social need into account. In the second part of this project we estimate the direct and indirect impacts that research effort on a disease has on health outcomes. We will compare changes in the extent of research effort across diseases with subsequent changes in disease-specific health outcomes. The analyses take into account health care expenditures, lifestyle and demographic changes, and for-profit medical innovation as factors that influence health outcomes. We will also estimate the indirect impacts that basic and more applied forms of medical research have on health outcomes through their impacts on for-profit medical innovation. The results will form an important input into calculating the optimal level of private and public funding of medical research. RELEVANCE (See instructions): Life expectancy has increased dramatically over the past century. This project uncovers the role of medical research in delivering these advances in life expectancy. The project also examines how population health needs influence the choice of research topics at different career stages, which will help predict how the aging of US biomedical researchers will impact research and its health benefits.