Spatial modeling of onchocerciasis foci in Africa by remote sensing

盘尾丝虫病是一种由寄生虫盘尾丝虫引起的使人衰弱的疾病。盘尾丝虫病对公共卫生的重要性已得到国际社会的认可，国际社会已赞助了几个项目，其目标（取决于项目）是控制盘尾丝虫病，彻底根除感染。目前所有的盘尾丝虫病控制计划都依赖于伊维菌素对高危人群的大规模治疗。盘尾丝虫病的控制是一个长期的过程，需要几年的时间， 治疗高危人群。因此，仔细识别高危人群对于有效分配盘尾丝虫病控制计划的有限资源至关重要。然而，盘尾丝虫病在世界上一些最难以进入的地区流行。在这些地区，很难或不可能进行彻底的实地流行病学调查，以准确界定高危人群。我们相信，这将是可能的，利用遥感数据开发一个基于空间的生态模型来预测地区流行的盘尾丝虫病。为实现这一总体目标，我们提出以下具体目标：1.利用前西非盘尾丝虫病控制方案收集的现有数据，结合遥感数据，开发寄生虫病媒利用的繁殖地预测模型。2.验证使用撒哈拉以南非洲地区现有盘尾丝虫病控制方案提供的现有数据开发的模型。3.利用特定目标1和2中开发的模型预测潜在盘尾丝虫病流行区的位置，并通过地面昆虫学和流行病学研究证实模型预测。4.测量病媒从繁殖地的平均移动，从而确定从繁殖地到人群感染风险的范围。

Onchocerciasis is a debilitating disease caused by infection with the parasite Onchocerca volvulus. The public health importance of onchocerciasis has been recognized by the international community, which has sponsored several programs whose goal (depending on the program) is to control onchocerciasis eradicate the infection entirely. All current onchocerciasis control programs rely upon mass treatment of at risk populations with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis control is a long term process, requiring several years of treatment of the at-risk population. Thus, carefully identifying the at-risk population is critically important for the efficient allocation of the limited resources available to the onchocerciasis control programs. However, onchocerciasis is endemic in some of the most inaccessible areas of the world. In such areas, it is difficult or impossible to conduct thorough ground based epidemiological surveys to precisely delineate the at-risk population. We believe that it will be possible to use remote sensing data to develop a spatially based ecological model to predict areas endemic for onchocerciasis. To accomplish this overall goal, we propose the following specific aims: 1. To use existing data collected by the former Onchocerciasis Control Program of West Africa in conjunction with remote sensing data to develop a predictive model for the breeding sites utilized by the vector for the parasite. 2. To validate the model developed using pre-existing data provided by the existing onchocerciasis control programs active throughout sub-Saharan Africa. 3. To predict the location of potential onchocerciasis endemic areas using the models developed in Specific Aims1 and 2, and to confirm the model predictions by ground-based entomological and epidemiologic al studies. 4. To measure the mean movement of the vector from the breeding sites, thereby delineating how far from a breeding site the risk of infection to the human population may extend.