Epidemiological and Spatial Models of Malaria Transmission

描述（由申请人提供）：尽管最近在疟疾控制方面取得了进展，但全球疟疾负担仍然很高。该项目的目标是开发数据驱动的工具，使疟疾控制计划能够针对疟疾传播水库。我们将使用来自刚果民主共和国的样本，这是世界上疟疾负担最高的国家之一。干血斑将获得一个大型的横断面研究，2014年人口与健康调查（DHS），并从一个新的前瞻性研究的1000人在4个地点不同程度的地方病。将通过逆转录酶PCR测量配子细胞血症。我们的第一个目标是绘制配子体水库，并确定如何个人，社区水平，和生态因素决定一个人的配子体运输的风险。我们的第二个目标是确定基因流动的障碍和走廊。将使用中性微卫星评估DHS中每个集群的恶性疟原虫结构。寄生虫亚群之间的遗传距离将使用群体遗传指标（Rst，Gst，Nm）计算，并用于推断基因流的走廊和障碍。我们的第三个目标是 利用目标1和目标2的结果设定参数并改进现有的疟疾传播数学空间模型。后一种模式将发展成为一种方便用户、免费提供的个人电脑工具，以便在刚果民主共和国和周围地区探索有针对性的控制的影响。该项目代表了分子流行病学家，医学地理学家和数学建模者之间独特的多学科合作。通过将分子和空间流行病学研究的结果纳入数学模型，我们希望开发一种有用和实用的疟疾控制工具。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The global malaria burden remains high despite recent advances in malaria control efforts. The goal of this project is to develop data-driven tool to enable malaria control programs to target the malaria transmission reservoir. We will use samples from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, one of countries with the highest malaria burden in the world. Dried blood spots will be obtained a large cross-sectional study, the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and from a new prospective study of 1000 individuals in 4 sites with varying levels of endemicity. Gametocytemia will be measured by reverse transcriptase PCR. Our first aim is to map the gametocyte reservoir and determine how individual, community-level, and ecological factors determine an individual's risk for gametocyte carriage. Our second aim is to identify barriers and corridors of gene flow. The structure of the P. falciparum at each cluster in the DHS will be assessed using neutral microsatellites. The genetic distances between parasite subpopulations will be calculated using population genetic metrics (Rst, Gst, Nm) and used to infer corridors of, and barriers to, gene flow. Our third aim is to use the results from aims 1 and 2 to parameterize and improve an existing mathematical spatial model for malaria transmission. This latter model will be developed into a user-friendly freely available PC-based tool to allow the impact of targeted control to be explored in DRC and the surrounding region. This project represents a unique multidisciplinary collaboration between molecular epidemiologists, medical geographers and mathematical modelers. By incorporating results from molecular and spatial epidemiological studies into mathematical models, we hope to develop a useful and practical tool for malaria control.