Epidemiological and Spatial Models of Malaria Transmission

描述（由申请人提供）：尽管最近在疟疾控制方面取得了进展，但全球疟疾负担仍然很高。该项目的目标是开发数据驱动的工具，使疟疾控制方案能够针对疟疾传播库。我们将使用来自刚果民主共和国的样本，这是世界上疟疾负担最重的国家之一。干血斑将通过2014年人口与健康调查（DHS）这一大型横断面研究以及对4个不同流行程度地点的1000人进行的一项新的前瞻性研究获得。配子体将通过逆转录酶PCR检测。我们的第一个目标是绘制配子体储存库，并确定个体、社区水平和生态因素如何决定个体携带配子体的风险。我们的第二个目标是确定基因流动的障碍和通道。将使用中性微型卫星对国土安全部每个群集的恶性疟原虫结构进行评估。利用种群遗传指标（Rst, Gst, Nm）计算寄生虫亚群之间的遗传距离，并用于推断基因流动的通道和障碍。第三个目标是

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The global malaria burden remains high despite recent advances in malaria control efforts. The goal of this project is to develop data-driven tool to enable malaria control programs to target the malaria transmission reservoir. We will use samples from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, one of countries with the highest malaria burden in the world. Dried blood spots will be obtained a large cross-sectional study, the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and from a new prospective study of 1000 individuals in 4 sites with varying levels of endemicity. Gametocytemia will be measured by reverse transcriptase PCR. Our first aim is to map the gametocyte reservoir and determine how individual, community-level, and ecological factors determine an individual's risk for gametocyte carriage. Our second aim is to identify barriers and corridors of gene flow. The structure of the P. falciparum at each cluster in the DHS will be assessed using neutral microsatellites. The genetic distances between parasite subpopulations will be calculated using population genetic metrics (Rst, Gst, Nm) and used to infer corridors of, and barriers to, gene flow. Our third aim is to use the results from aims 1 and 2 to parameterize and improve an existing mathematical spatial model for malaria transmission. This latter model will be developed into a user-friendly freely available PC-based tool to allow the impact of targeted control to be explored in DRC and the surrounding region. This project represents a unique multidisciplinary collaboration between molecular epidemiologists, medical geographers and mathematical modelers. By incorporating results from molecular and spatial epidemiological studies into mathematical models, we hope to develop a useful and practical tool for malaria control.