Simulation Modeling of Public Health Interventions on Dengue Vector Abundance: Cu

对登革热媒介丰度的公共卫生干预措施的模拟建模：Cu

• 批准号: 8796149
• 负责人: Heidi E Brown
• 金额: $ 11.55万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-02-01 至 2019-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8796149
• 关键词: Aedes; Arizona; Arthropods; Basic Science; Blood; Breeding; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Climate; Code; Communities; Complex; Controlled Environment; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Destinations; Development; Disease; Ecosystem; Effectiveness; Entomology; Environment; Epidemiology; Equation; Excision; Exposure to; Female; Funding; Glean; Goals; Habitats; Health; Health Personnel; Health Promotion; Home environment; Household; Human; Infection; Intervention; K-Series Research Career Programs; Life Tables; Location; Medical; Mentors; Modeling; Movement; Oviposition; Patient currently pregnant; Population; Population Dynamics; Prevention; Public Health; Publications; Publishing; Puerto Rico; Recording of previous events; Research; Research Personnel; Risk; Scientist; Series; Serologic tests; Site; Source; Study models; System; Temperature; Testing; Training; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Universities; Vaccines; Vector-transmitted infectious disease; Virus; Virus Diseases; Work; Yellow Fever; base; career; density; design; disorder prevention; egg; epidemiological model; experience; falls; feeding; fighting; health application; human data; insight; interdisciplinary approach; mathematical model; models and simulation; novel; outreach; prevent; public health intervention; real world application; research study; scale up; skills; tool; transmission process; vector; vector control

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Dengue is the most important arthropod-borne viral disease with over 50 million human cases annually. No vaccine or specific medical treatment is available. Limiting exposure to infected mosquitoes is the only public health strategy to reduce dengue. A novel exposure reduction strategy is being tested by the CDC: a trap that attracts gravid females but prevents escape after egg laying. Since only those which imbibe an infectious blood meal are infectious to humans, this trap removes the most dangerous mosquitoes. The goal of this proposal is to develop a model to test how manipulating oviposition sites influences Aedes aegypti flight range and abundance. The proposed work has both an empirical experimentation facet - testing the effect of oviposition site density on vector flight range and a modeling component - develop a mathematical model to examine effect of epidemiologic interventions on dengue vector population dynamics. The data gleaned from the proposed flight range experiments provide insight into how dengue moves through a population and will be used in the modeling component. The experiments will be conducted at Biosphere-2, providing a unique outreach opportunity. Biosphere-2 was constructed as a microcosm for human space colonization but has been converted to ecosystem scale experimentation. Because of its history, it is a tourist destination and guests interact with the scientist they mee. Since human data are rarely collected at the right level (serology and exposure location), the modeling component involves simulating mosquito population dynamics. It is parameterized using Aedes aegypti life tables and optimized with the CDC's gravid trap data. When completed, it can be used to test the impact of source reduction versus gravid removal trapping and identify the number of gravid traps necessary to have a significant effect on dengue vectors. Dengue continues to be a significant disease internationally and increasingly in the United States. The findings from both the experimentation and modeling components connote important advancements in dengue prevention. For me, this mentored career development award provides additional training in modeling epidemiological data and experience in public health promotion strategies. Dengue, like many of the vector-borne diseases is a complex system. Progress toward its reduction requires the interdisciplinary approach and variety of expertise as described in this proposal. RELEVANCE: Two and a half billion people around the world are at risk from the mosquito-borne viral disease, dengue. Reducing risk by eliminating the mosquitoes that carry the virus is the only way to prevent disease. I propose to model a novel intervention strategy being tested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Puerto Rico. By modeling this public health intervention its effectiveness can be model compared to other strategies, in other locations, and under alternative climate scenarios.

描述(申请人提供)：登革热是最重要的节肢动物传播的病毒疾病，每年有超过5000万人感染病例。目前还没有疫苗或特定的治疗方法。限制接触受感染的蚊子是减少登革热的唯一公共卫生战略。疾控中心正在测试一种新的减少暴露策略：一种诱捕器，吸引怀孕的雌性蚊子，但防止产卵后逃脱。由于只有那些吸入传染性血粉的蚊子才会感染人类，这种捕蚊器可以清除最危险的蚊子。这项提议的目标是开发一个模型，以测试操纵产卵地点如何影响埃及伊蚊的飞行范围和数量。这项工作既有经验实验部分--测试产卵地点密度对媒介飞行范围的影响，也有建模部分--开发一个数学模型来检验流行病学干预对登革热媒介种群动态的影响。从拟议的飞行距离实验中收集的数据提供了对登革热如何在人群中移动的洞察，并将用于建模部分。这些实验将在生物圈2号进行，提供了一个独特的外展机会。生物圈2号被建造为人类空间殖民的缩影，但已被转换为生态系统规模的实验。由于它的历史，它是一个旅游目的地，客人可以与他们遇到的科学家互动。由于很少在正确的水平(血清学和暴露地点)收集人类数据，建模部分涉及模拟蚊子种群动态。它使用埃及伊蚊生命表进行参数化，并使用疾控中心的妊娠诱捕数据进行优化。完成后，它可以用来测试减少污染源与清除妊娠诱捕的影响，并确定对登革热病媒产生显著影响所需的妊娠诱捕数量。登革热在国际上仍然是一种重要的疾病，在美国也越来越多。实验和建模部分的发现都表明在登革热预防方面取得了重要进展。对我来说，这个有指导的职业发展奖提供了在建立流行病学数据模型和公共卫生促进战略经验方面的额外培训。与许多媒介传播的疾病一样，登革热是一个复杂的系统。如本提案所述，为减少其影响而取得的进展需要跨学科的方法和各种专业知识。 相关性：全球有25亿人面临由蚊子传播的病毒疾病--登革热的风险。通过消灭携带病毒的蚊子来降低风险是预防疾病的唯一方法。我建议模拟波多黎各疾病控制和预防中心正在测试的一种新的干预策略。通过对这一公共卫生干预措施进行建模，可以在其他地点和其他气候情景下，将其有效性与其他战略进行比较。