Modeling and Forecasting Atherosclerotic Risk: A Complex Systems Approach
动脉粥样硬化风险建模和预测:复杂的系统方法
基本信息
- 批准号:9903107
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 58.54万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:
- 财政年份:2017
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2017-09-15 至 2023-03-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:AccountingAddressAffectAffordable Care ActAfrican AmericanAgeAlgorithmsAmericanAmerican Heart AssociationAssessment toolAtherosclerosisBehaviorBehavioralCardiologyCardiovascular DiseasesCardiovascular ModelsCardiovascular systemCaringCause of DeathCensusesCessation of lifeCharacteristicsClimateClinicClinicalCommunitiesCommunity DevelopmentsComplexDataDimensionsDisease OutcomeDisease ProgressionEconomicsEffectivenessElderlyEnvironmentEnvironmental Risk FactorEquationEventFood AccessFoundationsGoalsGuidelinesHealthHealth FoodHealth SciencesHealth Services AccessibilityHealth and Retirement StudyHealth systemHealthcare SystemsHeart DiseasesHouseholdHybridsImmunologyIndividualInequalityInstitutionInternal MedicineLeadLife ExpectancyLightLocationLow incomeMeasuresMethodologyMethodsModelingMyocardial InfarctionNatureNeighborhoodsOhioOutcomeParticipantPatientsPerformancePhysiologicalPopulationPreventive carePrimary PreventionProviderQuality of lifeRegistriesResearchRiskRisk FactorsSecondary PreventionSocial WorkSocioeconomic StatusStressStrokeSystemTimeTranslatingUnited StatesVariantWeatherWomanWorkagedatherosclerosis riskatmospheric sciencesbasecardiovascular disorder riskcardiovascular risk factorcareercaucasian Americancohortcollegecontextual factorscostexperiencefallshealth dataheart disease riskhuman very old age (85+)improvedinsightlow socioeconomic statusmenpatient populationpopulation healthpredictive modelingprevention serviceprofiles in patientsresidencesocioeconomicsspatial epidemiologysupport toolstooltranslational scientisturban poverty
项目摘要
Project Summary/Abstract
Inequality in health outcomes in relation to Americans' socioeconomic status (SES) is rising: a recent study by the
Brookings Institution found that life expectancy for men and women in the top 10% of career earnings was over 10 years
greater than those in the bottom 10%. Cardiovascular disease – still leading cause of death for Americans – merits study
with respect to these findings.
More research on how SES affects atherosclerotic risk is needed. The goal of our project is to develop advanced
forecasting algorithms for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD)-related events – both at baseline and
longitudinally – using systems-based modeling methodologies which incorporate probabilistic representations of patients'
socioeconomic and environmental characteristics. This represents a paradigm shift beyond existing models used in
guiding primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerotic disease; in particular, risk models developed by the
American College of Cardiology Foundation and the American Heart Association (ACCF/AHA) are based solely on
physiological risk factors. We believe that the prediction performance of ASCVD risk models can be significantly
improved by incorporating socioeconomic and environmental risks, especially in an era where improved primary and
secondary prevention and increased socioeconomic inequality have resulted in complex phenomena among elderly
Americans with respect to ASCVD risk.
Our preliminary work indicates a significant degree of neighborhood-level variability in major ASCVD events
(myocardial infarction, stroke or cardiovascular death), with low-SES neighborhoods associated with event rates over
three times that of high-SES neighborhoods. Moreover, neighborhood SES explained four times the amount of
neighborhood-level variation in ASCVD event rates than that explained by the ACCF/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations
Risk Model. Our proposed project will therefore provide an essential risk modeling platform to health care systems
focused on optimizing the health of populations that are highly heterogeneous with respect to socioeconomic and
environmental characteristics.
These models will be developed in a team-based environment, including translational scientists from general internal
medicine, cardiology, social work, spatial epidemiology, urban poverty, community development, immunology, and data
and population health sciences. Informing the models will be a newly-established, cutting-edge regional research registry,
based on electronic health data from Northeast Ohio's two largest health systems, Cleveland Clinic and MetroHealth.
Ultimately, this research is anticipated to yield new mechanistic insights and hypotheses, more accurate prediction models
for cardiovascular outcomes, and a basis for informing decisions at multiple strategic and programmatic levels.
项目概要/摘要
与美国人的社会经济地位(SES)相关的健康结果的不平等正在加剧:最近的一项研究
布鲁金斯学会发现,职业收入最高 10% 的男性和女性的预期寿命超过 10 年
高于最底层 10% 的人。心血管疾病——仍然是美国人的主要死亡原因——值得研究
关于这些发现。
需要更多关于 SES 如何影响动脉粥样硬化风险的研究。我们项目的目标是开发先进的
动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病 (ASCVD) 相关事件的预测算法 - 无论是在基线还是在
纵向——使用基于系统的建模方法,其中结合了患者的概率表示
社会经济和环境特征。这代表了超越现有模型的范式转变
指导动脉粥样硬化疾病的一级和二级预防;特别是,由
美国心脏病学会基金会和美国心脏协会 (ACCF/AHA) 仅基于
生理危险因素。我们相信 ASCVD 风险模型的预测性能可以显着提高
通过纳入社会经济和环境风险来改善,特别是在初级教育和环境改善的时代
二级预防和社会经济不平等的加剧导致老年人出现复杂的现象
美国人对于 ASCVD 风险的看法。
我们的初步工作表明,主要 ASCVD 事件存在显着的邻里层面变异性
(心肌梗死、中风或心血管死亡),社会经济地位低的社区与事件发生率相关
是高SES社区的三倍。此外,社区 SES 解释了四倍的金额
ASCVD 事件发生率的邻里水平变化高于 ACCF/AHA 队列方程所解释的变化
风险模型。因此,我们提出的项目将为医疗保健系统提供一个重要的风险建模平台
专注于优化在社会经济和社会方面高度异质的人群的健康
环境特征。
这些模型将在基于团队的环境中开发,包括来自一般内部的转化科学家
医学、心脏病学、社会工作、空间流行病学、城市贫困、社区发展、免疫学和数据
和人口健康科学。为模型提供信息的将是一个新建立的尖端区域研究登记处,
基于俄亥俄州东北部两个最大的卫生系统克利夫兰诊所和 MetroHealth 的电子健康数据。
最终,这项研究预计将产生新的机制见解和假设,以及更准确的预测模型
心血管结果,以及在多个战略和规划层面上为决策提供信息的基础。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}
{{
item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
- DOI:
{{ item.doi }} - 发表时间:
{{ item.publish_year }} - 期刊:
- 影响因子:{{ item.factor }}
- 作者:
{{ item.authors }} - 通讯作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}
JARROD DALTON其他文献
JARROD DALTON的其他文献
{{
item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
- DOI:
{{ item.doi }} - 发表时间:
{{ item.publish_year }} - 期刊:
- 影响因子:{{ item.factor }}
- 作者:
{{ item.authors }} - 通讯作者:
{{ item.author }}
{{ truncateString('JARROD DALTON', 18)}}的其他基金
Digital Twin Neighborhoods for Research on Place-Based Health Inequalities in Mid-Life
用于研究中年地区健康不平等的数字孪生社区
- 批准号:
10583781 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Forecasting Lung Transplant Benefit: A Dynamic Risk Modeling Approach
预测肺移植效益:动态风险建模方法
- 批准号:
10407519 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Forecasting Lung Transplant Benefit: A Dynamic Risk Modeling Approach
预测肺移植效益:动态风险建模方法
- 批准号:
10028953 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Forecasting Lung Transplant Benefit: A Dynamic Risk Modeling Approach
预测肺移植效益:动态风险建模方法
- 批准号:
10617292 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Forecasting Lung Transplant Benefit: A Dynamic Risk Modeling Approach
预测肺移植效益:动态风险建模方法
- 批准号:
10171622 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Modeling and Forecasting Atherosclerotic Risk: A Complex Systems Approach
动脉粥样硬化风险建模和预测:复杂的系统方法
- 批准号:
9287398 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Mechanisms of Cognitive Decline Across Socioeconomic and Clinical Contexts
社会经济和临床背景下认知衰退的机制
- 批准号:
10120416 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Cardiovascular Risk among Transgender Persons in a Regional Electronic Health Record Registry
区域电子健康记录登记中跨性别者的心血管风险
- 批准号:
10092599 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
相似海外基金
Rational design of rapidly translatable, highly antigenic and novel recombinant immunogens to address deficiencies of current snakebite treatments
合理设计可快速翻译、高抗原性和新型重组免疫原,以解决当前蛇咬伤治疗的缺陷
- 批准号:
MR/S03398X/2 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Fellowship
CAREER: FEAST (Food Ecosystems And circularity for Sustainable Transformation) framework to address Hidden Hunger
职业:FEAST(食品生态系统和可持续转型循环)框架解决隐性饥饿
- 批准号:
2338423 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Re-thinking drug nanocrystals as highly loaded vectors to address key unmet therapeutic challenges
重新思考药物纳米晶体作为高负载载体以解决关键的未满足的治疗挑战
- 批准号:
EP/Y001486/1 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Metrology to address ion suppression in multimodal mass spectrometry imaging with application in oncology
计量学解决多模态质谱成像中的离子抑制问题及其在肿瘤学中的应用
- 批准号:
MR/X03657X/1 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Fellowship
CRII: SHF: A Novel Address Translation Architecture for Virtualized Clouds
CRII:SHF:一种用于虚拟化云的新型地址转换架构
- 批准号:
2348066 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
The Abundance Project: Enhancing Cultural & Green Inclusion in Social Prescribing in Southwest London to Address Ethnic Inequalities in Mental Health
丰富项目:增强文化
- 批准号:
AH/Z505481/1 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
ERAMET - Ecosystem for rapid adoption of modelling and simulation METhods to address regulatory needs in the development of orphan and paediatric medicines
ERAMET - 快速采用建模和模拟方法的生态系统,以满足孤儿药和儿科药物开发中的监管需求
- 批准号:
10107647 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
EU-Funded
BIORETS: Convergence Research Experiences for Teachers in Synthetic and Systems Biology to Address Challenges in Food, Health, Energy, and Environment
BIORETS:合成和系统生物学教师的融合研究经验,以应对食品、健康、能源和环境方面的挑战
- 批准号:
2341402 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Ecosystem for rapid adoption of modelling and simulation METhods to address regulatory needs in the development of orphan and paediatric medicines
快速采用建模和模拟方法的生态系统,以满足孤儿药和儿科药物开发中的监管需求
- 批准号:
10106221 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
EU-Funded
Recite: Building Research by Communities to Address Inequities through Expression
背诵:社区开展研究,通过表达解决不平等问题
- 批准号:
AH/Z505341/1 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 58.54万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant