Crossnational Comparisons of Kinlessness and Health: Past, Present and Future

无亲与健康的跨国比较：过去、现在和未来

• 批准号: 9924493
• 负责人: Ashton Michael Verdery
• 金额: $ 27.41万
• 依托单位: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-05-15 至 2024-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9924493
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Age; Aging; Attention; Child; Child Mortality; Communication; Country; Data; Data Analyses; Data Set; Demographic Transitions; Demography; Dimensions; Divorce; Drops; Elderly; Family; Family health status; Family member; Fertility Rates; Future; Geography; Goals; Health; Link; Literature; Loneliness; Long-Term Effects; Marriage; Measures; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Older Population; Parents; Pathway interactions; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Population Projection; Prevalence; Process; Research; Running; Siblings; Sister; Social Network; Social isolation; Social support; Societies; Spouses; Surveys; Target Populations; Testing; To specify; Uncertainty; United States; Variant; aging population; base; experience; family structure; global health; innovation; mortality; population health; simulation; trend

Project Summary Countries around the world are currently experiencing the long-term effects of prior demographic changes. Historical drops in mortality and fertility rates associated with the first demographic transition are causing dramatic population aging in many societies, with more to follow. More recently, the second demographic transition engendered a reorganization of family formation processes in many places; these processes are ongoing, but retreats from marriage, increased divorce, and greater levels of childlessness are spreading to ever more contexts. The natural consequence of these combined forces is a world where many countries have increasingly larger subpopulations of older adults lacking the types of living family members that are the mainstays of social support networks. In this project, we aim to examine how the family networks of older adults are changing across countries, how they will likely change in the future, and how shifts in kin availability will impact health through mechanisms of loneliness and social isolation. In the proposed project, we will undertake these goals by combining data from numerous nationally representative studies with computational social network and demographic projection methods to examine the current and rapidly growing future prevalence of older adults who do not have any living family members – what we refer to as kinlessness – and we will test what these trends imply for population health now and in the future. Using 17 different data sets from 36 countries, our estimates of family structure and health provide coverage for 70.5% of the global population of adults ages 45 and above, with some representation in each world region. Using these data, we will first document national differences in prevalence of kinless older adults according to several definitions of kinlessness (e.g. lacking a spouse/partner and children; having none of the following kin types: spouse/partner, children, parents, or siblings; etc.). Next, we will examine associations between kinlessness and health, with specific attention to loneliness and social isolation mechanisms, including examining kin geographic proximity, and contact, communication, transfers, and exchanges with kin and non-kin. After this, we will use social network simulation and demographic projection methods to situate contemporary estimates of kinlessness in historical context for each country in our study. Doing so will allow us to provide clear estimates of the future trajectory of trends in kinlessness in different contexts and to characterize general processes and contextual variation in its likely unfolding. As part of this endeavor, we will apply estimates of relationships between lacking living kin and health to our projections in order to characterize how kinlessness and family structure trends might affect global health in the coming decades. We will also test sensitivities to uncertainty about future demographic trends and alternative scenarios. This project will tie together how ongoing changes in demography and families over the long run are shifting the number of kin available to older adults, address how the kinless population fares across contexts in terms of health and social isolation, and provide the first characterization of the implications for population health of global variability and changes in older adult family structures now and in the future.

项目概要 世界各国目前正在经历先前人口变化的长期影响。 与第一次人口转变相关的死亡率和生育率的历史性下降正在导致 许多社会的人口急剧老龄化，而且还会有更多的社会随之而来。最近，第二人口 转型导致许多地方的家庭组建过程进行了重组；这些过程是 持续存在，但婚姻退缩、离婚增加和无子女现象正在蔓延到 更多的上下文。这些综合力量的自然结果是一个许多国家都拥有共同利益的世界。 越来越多的老年人亚群缺乏在世家庭成员的类型 社会支持网络的支柱。在这个项目中，我们旨在研究老年人的家庭网络如何 不同国家的成年人正在发生变化，他们未来可能会发生怎样的变化，以及亲属关系的变化 将通过孤独和社会隔离机制影响健康。在拟议的项目中，我们将 通过将众多具有全国代表性的研究的数据与计算相结合来实现这些目标 社交网络和人口预测方法来审视当前和快速增长的未来 没有任何在世家庭成员的老年人的普遍存在——我们称之为无亲人——以及 我们将测试这些趋势对现在和未来的人口健康意味着什么。使用 17 个不同的数据集 我们对 36 个国家/地区的家庭结构和健康状况的估计覆盖了全球 70.5% 的人口 45 岁及以上的成年人口，在世界各地区都有一定的代表性。利用这些数据，我们 将首先根据以下几个定义记录无亲老年人患病率的国家差异 无亲属关系（例如，没有配偶/伴侣和子女；没有以下亲属类型：配偶/伴侣， 孩子、父母或兄弟姐妹； ETC。）。接下来，我们将研究无亲与健康之间的关联， 特别关注孤独和社会隔离机制，包括检查亲属的地理位置接近程度， 以及与亲属和非亲属的接触、沟通、转移和交流。之后，我们将使用社交 网络模拟和人口预测方法将当代对无亲关系的估计置于 我们研究的每个国家的历史背景。这样做将使我们能够对未来提供清晰的估计 不同背景下无亲趋势的轨迹，并描述一般过程和背景 其可能展开的变化。作为这项工作的一部分，我们将应用对之间关系的估计 缺乏在世亲属和健康状况以我们的预测来描述无亲属关系和家庭结构如何 趋势可能会在未来几十年影响全球健康。我们还将测试对不确定性的敏感性 未来的人口趋势和替代方案。该项目将如何将当前的变化联系起来 从长远来看，人口结构和家庭正在改变老年人的亲属数量，地址 无亲人口在健康和社会隔离方面如何在不同背景下表现，并提供第一个 描述全球变异性和老年人家庭变化对人口健康的影响 现在和未来的结构。