Crossnational Comparisons of Kinlessness and Health: Past, Present and Future

无亲与健康的跨国比较：过去、现在和未来

• 批准号: 10586046
• 负责人: Ashton Michael Verdery
• 金额: $ 24.15万
• 依托单位: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-05-15 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10586046
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Age; Aging; Attention; Child; Child Mortality; Communication; Country; Data; Data Analyses; Data Set; Demographic Transitions; Demography; Dimensions; Divorce; Drops; Elderly; Family; Family health status; Family member; Fertility Rates; Future; Geography; Goals; Health; Link; Literature; Loneliness; Long-Term Effects; Marriage; Measures; Methodology; Methods; Older Population; Parents; Pathway interactions; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Population Projection; Prevalence; Process; Research; Running; Siblings; Sister; Social Network; Social isolation; Social support; Societies; Specific qualifier value; Spouses; Surveys; Target Populations; Testing; Uncertainty; United States; Variant; aging population; experience; family structure; global health; innovation; models and simulation; mortality; population health; simulation; trend

Project Summary Countries around the world are currently experiencing the long-term effects of prior demographic changes. Historical drops in mortality and fertility rates associated with the first demographic transition are causing dramatic population aging in many societies, with more to follow. More recently, the second demographic transition engendered a reorganization of family formation processes in many places; these processes are ongoing, but retreats from marriage, increased divorce, and greater levels of childlessness are spreading to ever more contexts. The natural consequence of these combined forces is a world where many countries have increasingly larger subpopulations of older adults lacking the types of living family members that are the mainstays of social support networks. In this project, we aim to examine how the family networks of older adults are changing across countries, how they will likely change in the future, and how shifts in kin availability will impact health through mechanisms of loneliness and social isolation. In the proposed project, we will undertake these goals by combining data from numerous nationally representative studies with computational social network and demographic projection methods to examine the current and rapidly growing future prevalence of older adults who do not have any living family members – what we refer to as kinlessness – and we will test what these trends imply for population health now and in the future. Using 17 different data sets from 36 countries, our estimates of family structure and health provide coverage for 70.5% of the global population of adults ages 45 and above, with some representation in each world region. Using these data, we will first document national differences in prevalence of kinless older adults according to several definitions of kinlessness (e.g. lacking a spouse/partner and children; having none of the following kin types: spouse/partner, children, parents, or siblings; etc.). Next, we will examine associations between kinlessness and health, with specific attention to loneliness and social isolation mechanisms, including examining kin geographic proximity, and contact, communication, transfers, and exchanges with kin and non-kin. After this, we will use social network simulation and demographic projection methods to situate contemporary estimates of kinlessness in historical context for each country in our study. Doing so will allow us to provide clear estimates of the future trajectory of trends in kinlessness in different contexts and to characterize general processes and contextual variation in its likely unfolding. As part of this endeavor, we will apply estimates of relationships between lacking living kin and health to our projections in order to characterize how kinlessness and family structure trends might affect global health in the coming decades. We will also test sensitivities to uncertainty about future demographic trends and alternative scenarios. This project will tie together how ongoing changes in demography and families over the long run are shifting the number of kin available to older adults, address how the kinless population fares across contexts in terms of health and social isolation, and provide the first characterization of the implications for population health of global variability and changes in older adult family structures now and in the future.

项目摘要 世界各国目前正在经历先前人口变化的长期影响。 与第一次人口结构转型相关的死亡率和生育率的历史性下降， 许多社会的人口急剧老龄化，并将有更多的人跟进。最近，第二个人口统计学 转型导致许多地方家庭形成过程的重组;这些过程 正在进行，但从婚姻撤退，离婚增加，更高水平的无子女正在蔓延到 更多的上下文。这些力量结合在一起的自然结果是，世界上许多国家 越来越多的老年人缺乏生活的家庭成员， 社会支持网络的支柱。在这个项目中，我们的目标是研究老年人的家庭网络如何 各国的成年人正在发生变化，他们在未来可能会如何变化，以及亲属关系的变化 会通过孤独和社会孤立的机制影响健康。在拟议项目中，我们将 通过将来自众多国家代表性研究的数据与计算数据相结合， 社会网络和人口预测方法，以审查当前和快速增长的未来 没有任何活着的家庭成员的老年人的普遍性-我们称之为无亲属-以及 我们将检验这些趋势对现在和将来的人口健康意味着什么。使用17个不同的数据集 在36个国家中，我们对家庭结构和健康的估计覆盖了全球70.5%的人口， 45岁及以上的成年人口，在世界每个区域都有一些代表。利用这些数据，我们 将首先根据几种定义记录无亲属老年人患病率的国家差异， 无亲属关系（例如：没有配偶/伴侣和子女;没有以下亲属类型：配偶/伴侣， 子女、父母或兄弟姐妹等）。接下来，我们将研究无亲属关系与健康之间的关系， 特别注意孤独和社会隔离机制，包括审查亲属地理接近程度， 以及与亲属和非亲属的联系、沟通、转移和交换。在此之后，我们将使用社交 网络模拟和人口预测方法来验证当代估计的无亲属关系， 我们研究中每个国家的历史背景。这样做将使我们能够对未来作出明确的估计 不同背景下无亲属趋势的轨迹，并描述一般过程和背景 在其可能的演变变化。作为这项奋进的一部分，我们将应用估计之间的关系， 缺乏亲属和健康来描述无亲属和家庭结构 这些趋势可能会影响未来几十年的全球健康。我们还将测试对以下不确定性的敏感性： 未来的人口趋势和替代方案。该项目将结合在一起如何正在进行的变化， 从长远来看，人口和家庭正在改变老年人的亲属数量， 无亲属人口在健康和社会隔离方面的情况如何，并提供了第一个 老年人家庭中全球变异性和变化对人口健康影响的特征 现在和未来的结构。