Long-term impacts on human capital of children exposed to a natural disaster

遭受自然灾害的儿童人力资本的长期影响

• 批准号: 10649011
• 负责人: Nicholas S Ingwersen
• 金额: $ 7.78万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-04-15 至 2025-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10649011
• 关键词: Address; Adolescence; Adult; Adverse event; Age; Age Years; Automobile Driving; Child; Childhood; Cognition; Cognitive; Communities; Country; Coupled; Data; Dimensions; Disasters; Earthquakes; Education; Event; Exposure to; Family; Family member; Female; Fertility; Frequencies; Grain; Health; Health care facility; Heterogeneity; Household; Indian Ocean; Individual; Indonesia; Infrastructure; Island; Life; Marriage; Measures; Mental Health; Natural Disasters; Natural experiment; Outcome; Outcome Measure; Parents; Pathway interactions; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Poverty; Procedures; Process; Prospective Studies; Recovery; Research; Resources; Respondent; Risk; Sampling; Sampling Studies; Schools; Specificity; Subgroup; Sumatra; Surveys; Time; Trauma; Tsunami; Variant; Work; Youth; acetone hydrazone; childhood adversity; cognitive performance; design; disaster resilience; emerging adult; experience; follow-up; human capital; insight; male; migration; negative affect; physical conditioning; post-traumatic stress; reconstruction; resilience; socioeconomics

ABSTRACT This project will investigate the long-term impacts of an unanticipated large-scale natural disaster on the human capital and wellbeing of exposed youth. Data will come from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a 15-year panel study of coastal communities, households, and individuals in Aceh and North Sumatra on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia, who were at risk of exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. In contrast to previous studies of childhood aversity on long-term outcomes, STAR is designed to leverage the natural experiment of the tsunami to study the causal effects of large-scale adverse events on a large sample of individuals that is representative of the pre-tsunami population. Our project will focus on respondents who were under the age of 17 at the time of the disaster and were therefore in adolescence and early adulthood (roughly 15-31 years of age) at the 15-year follow-up. We will investigate the separate impacts of both community- and individual-level tsunami exposures on outcomes related to human capital spanning education, cognitive performance, and health, as well as domains of early adult life like work and earnings, marriage, fertility, and migration. We will contribute evidence on how effects differ by age of exposure and heterogeneity in effects between, for example, males and females, those who lost parents or other family members. This project will also fully leverage all eight rounds of STAR panel data (one baseline and seven follow-up rounds) to closely trace out the trajectories of child outcomes in the initial and intermediate post-disaster periods, as well as continue to follow those outcomes into the longer-term, which will provide detailed insights into post-disaster resiliency and recovery and into the mechanisms underlying the long-term impacts of the disaster that studies with fewer survey rounds cannot observe.

摘要 该项目将调查一场未预料到的大规模自然灾害对 风险青年的人力资本和福祉。数据将来自海啸后果研究， 恢复（星星），一项为期15年的亚齐沿海社区，家庭和个人的小组研究， 印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛上的北苏门答腊，他们在2004年面临着暴露在印度洋的危险 地震和海啸与以前关于儿童期厌恶对长期结果的研究相比，星星是 旨在利用海啸的自然实验来研究大规模不利影响的因果关系， 对海啸前人口中具有代表性的大量个人样本进行了调查。我们的项目将 重点关注灾害发生时未满17岁的受访者， 在15年随访时，青少年和成年早期（大约15-31岁）。我们将调查 社区和个人两级海啸暴露对人类健康相关结果的单独影响 资本跨越教育、认知能力和健康，以及工作等早期成人生活领域 收入、婚姻、生育率和移民。我们将提供证据，说明不同年龄的影响如何不同。 暴露和影响的异质性，例如，男性和女性，那些失去父母或 其他家庭成员。该项目还将充分利用所有八轮星星面板数据（一个基线 和七轮后续行动），以密切跟踪儿童在初期和中期的成果轨迹， 灾后时期，以及继续遵循这些成果到长期，这将提供 详细了解灾后复原力和恢复以及长期 调查次数较少的研究无法观察到的灾害影响。