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Modeling the public health impact of a flavored cigar ban

模拟调味雪茄禁令对公共健康的影响

基本信息

批准号：
10665869
负责人：
Sarah Mills
金额：
$ 67.96万
依托单位：
UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2023-09-30 至 2028-08-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10665869
关键词：
Address Adult Affect Behavior Black race Characteristics Cigar Cigarette Cigarette Smoker Collaborations Communication Country Data Demographic Impact Disease Effectiveness Electronic cigarette Ethnic Origin Face Health Health Benefit Individual Inequity Legal Literature Low income Maintenance Marketing Markov Chains Menthol Modeling Monitor North Carolina Pattern Persons Pharyngeal structure Phase Policies Population Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Population Group Positioning Attribute Poverty Prevalence Probability Public Health Race Reduce health disparities Regulation Research Research Priority Sales Science Smoke Smoking Study models Subgroup System Taste Perception Time Tobacco Tobacco use United States United States Food and Drug Administration Universities Update Youth cigarette smoke cigarillos combustible tobacco contextual factors design ethnic minority health disparity improved models and simulation mortality mortality disparity polytobacco use population health racial minority systematic review tobacco control tobacco flavor tobacco products tobacco regulation tobacco regulatory science tobacco user tool

项目摘要

ABSTRACT: PROJECT 3 The objective of this project is to estimate the public health impact of a federal flavored cigar ban on tobacco use, mortality and health disparities in the United States. This project will build a microsimulation model of individuals living in the US who are current, former, or potential users of cigars, cigarettes and e-cigarettes. The model can be used to track tobacco use over time, so the impact of a flavored cigar ban on smoking and mortality in the US population and in priority populations for tobacco control, such as among people who are Black or have lower incomes, can be estimated. The microsimulation model will be built in three phases corresponding to the specific aims. Specifically, using data from the nationally representative, longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study, we will estimate tobacco use transition probabilities over time, with a focus on the effects of cigar use on initiation, cessation, and dual/poly use of tobacco products (Aim 1). We will conduct a systematic review to compile data on cigar users’ tobacco use after a flavored cigar ban and elicit potential policy design effects from tobacco experts. Tobacco experts will be asked to develop plausible and distinct flavored cigar ban scenarios to simulate and compare, and quantify how key post-ban contextual factors (e.g., policy enforcement) affect the impact of the ban (Aim 2). Finally, using findings from Aims 1 and 2, and estimates from the literature, we will build a microsimulation model to estimate how tobacco use and mortality changes in the presence of a federal flavored cigar ban and in plausible moderating circumstances, such as with weak tobacco retailer compliance with a ban (Aim 3). This project will provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential public health impact of a flavored cigar ban, critical scientific evidence to counter likely legal challenges against a federal ban. We will also identify key threats to policy effectiveness for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor and address in collaboration with local and state partners to maximize the public health benefits of the policy. This project addresses FDA research priorities to assess the impact of tobacco product characteristics (i.e., flavors) on initiation and cessation (Behavior, Aim 1) and to understand the public health impact of potential FDA regulatory action on tobacco use behavior and health (Impact Analysis, Aims 2 and 3). The University of North Carolina (UNC) Tobacco Centers of Regulatory Science (TCORS) has deep expertise in tobacco regulation and communications. The Center’s Integrative Theme is building the science for effective regulation of and communication about tobacco products disproportionately used by priority populations – flavored tobacco products.

摘要：项目3