A microsimulation of alcohol control interventions to advance health equity and reverse the current decrease in life expectancy in the US

酒精控制干预措施的微观模拟，以促进健康公平并扭转美国当前预期寿命下降的趋势

• 批准号: 10889432
• 负责人: Charlotte Probst
• 金额: $ 10.69万
• 依托单位: CENTRE FOR ADDICTION AND MENTAL HEALTH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-08-10 至 2025-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10889432
• 关键词: 18 year old; Accidental Injury; Adult; Affect; Age; Alaska Native; Alcohol consumption; Alcohols; American Indians; Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Birth; Brain hemorrhage; Cause of Death; Censuses; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Data; Demographic Factors; Demographic Survey; Development; Diabetes Mellitus; Epidemiology; Ethnic Origin; Ethnic Population; Future; General Population; Individual; Inequality; Injury; Intervention; Life; Life Expectancy; Link; Liver Cirrhosis; Liver diseases; Modeling; Modification; Motor Vehicles; Myocardial Ischemia; National Health Interview Survey; Not Hispanic or Latino; Outcome Measure; Pattern; Play; Pneumonia; Poisoning; Population; Poverty; Premature Mortality; Price; Race; Regulation; Research; Risk; Risk Factors; Role; Series; Socioeconomic Status; Specific qualifier value; Subgroup; Suicide; Surveys; System; Taxation; Time; United States; Vital Statistics; Vulnerable Populations; age group; alcohol availability; alcohol effect; alcohol screening and brief intervention; attributable mortality; burden of illness; chronic liver disease; cost effectiveness; drinking; evidence base; experience; health equity; health inequalities; hypertensive heart disease; improved; insight; intervention effect; low socioeconomic status; model design; models and simulation; mortality; mortality risk; population survey; prevent; primary outcome; public policy on alcohol; racial population; scale up; screening and brief intervention; sex; simulation; socioeconomics; trend

PROJECT SUMMARY Until recently, life expectancy in the United States (US) had been increasing. However, in the past couple of years, life expectancy at birth started to decline, following a period of stagnation. Underlying this trend are increases in mortality rates in specific causes of death, with individuals with low socioeconomic status (SES) being disproportionately affected. The specific causes of death for which mortality rates have increased include poisoning, suicide, motor vehicle-related injuries, liver disease and cirrhosis and diabetes mellitus—all of which are causally linked to alcohol use. Alcohol use has also been found to be associated with heightened mortality risk among individuals with a low SES. The proposed project will investigate the role of alcohol use in past and future trends in US life expectancy on both the national and state level. Fifteen states have been selected for the state-level modeling based on relevant characteristics (e.g., high mortality rates), covering all nine census divisions and more than 50% of the population. Years of potential life lost (YLL) will serve as the primary outcome measure, as it is more closely related to life expectancy per se than mortality rates. The project will I) investigate SES and race/ethnicity as effect modifiers on the relationship between alcohol use and YLL using National Health Interview Survey data linked to cause of death data; II) generate a microsimulation model of cause-specific alcohol-attributable YLL by SES, race/ethnicity, age and sex (for years 2002-2017); and III) model gains in YLL for different alcohol control intervention scenarios (for years 2018-2028). The microsimulation model will be based on data from the National Vital Statistics System and Current Population Surveys for the demographic component, the exposure component will be informed by data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. YLL from unintentional injuries, suicide, liver disease and cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke and hypertensive heart disease will be investigated among the adult (18+ years of age) general population of the US. Cause-specific mortality risks related to alcohol use will account for effect modification by SES and race/ethnicity, if appropriate. The effects of alcohol taxation, minimum unit pricing, regulation of the availability of alcohol and screening and brief intervention on alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable mortality will be modeled under different scenarios. The findings of the proposed study will directly inform evidence-based alcohol control interventions with the aim of reducing alcohol-attributable mortality, particularly among the most vulnerable groups of the US population. Furthermore, the microsimulation model will have the potential to be expanded in the future in order to include additional states, interventions and/or risk factors.

项目摘要 直到最近，美国的预期寿命一直在增加。然而，在过去的几年里， 2000年，出生时预期寿命在经历了一段停滞期后开始下降。这一趋势的基础是 社会经济地位低的个人的特定死因死亡率增加 受到不成比例的影响。死亡率上升的具体死亡原因包括 中毒、自杀、与机动车有关的伤害、肝病、肝硬化和糖尿病--所有这些 与饮酒有因果关系酒精的使用也被发现与高死亡率有关 低SES人群的风险。 拟议中的项目将调查酒精使用在过去和未来美国预期寿命趋势中的作用， 无论是国家层面还是国家层面。已选择15个州进行州级建模， 相关特性（例如，高死亡率），涵盖所有九个人口普查区和50%以上的人口普查区。 人口潜在寿命损失年数（YLL）将作为主要结局指标，因为它更接近 与预期寿命本身的关系比死亡率更大。该项目将I）调查SES和种族/民族， 使用全国健康访谈调查数据对酒精使用与YLL之间关系的影响因素 与死亡原因数据相关联; II）生成原因特异性酒精归因YLL的微观模拟模型 按社会经济地位、种族/民族、年龄和性别（2002-2017年）;和III）不同酒精的YLL模型增益 控制干预情景（2018-2028年）。微观模拟模型将基于来自 国家生命统计系统和当前人口调查的人口组成部分， 这一部分将由全国酒精和相关疾病流行病学调查的数据提供信息。 条件和行为危险因素监测系统。非故意伤害、自杀、肝脏 疾病和肝硬化、糖尿病、缺血性心脏病、出血性中风和高血压性心脏病 将在美国成年（18岁以上）普通人群中研究疾病。病因特异 与酒精使用相关的死亡风险将解释SES和种族/民族的影响，如果 适当酒精税、最低单位价格、酒精供应管制以及 对酒精消费和酒精相关死亡率进行筛查和短暂干预 在不同的情况下。 拟议研究的结果将直接为基于证据的酒精控制干预提供信息， 目标是降低酒精导致的死亡率，特别是在美国最脆弱的群体中 人口此外，微观模拟模型将有潜力在未来扩大，以 包括其他国家、干预措施和/或风险因素。

项目成果

Trends in mortality from alcohol, opioid, and combined alcohol and opioid poisonings by sex, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity for the United States 2000-2019.

饮酒，阿片类药物以及通过性别，教育程度以及2000 - 2019年美国种族和种族的酒精和阿片类药物中毒的死亡率趋势。

• DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02590-z
• 发表时间: 2022-10-24
• 期刊: BMC MEDICINE
• 影响因子: 9.3
• 作者: Buckley, Charlotte;Ye, Yu;Kerr, William C.;Mulia, Nina;Puka, Klajdi;Rehm, Jurgen;Probst, Charlotte
• 通讯作者: Probst, Charlotte

Can lifestyle factors explain racial and ethnic inequalities in all-cause mortality among US adults?

生活方式因素可以解释美国成年人全因死亡率的种族和民族不平等吗？

• DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2701139/v1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Research square
• 作者: Puka,Klajdi;Kilian,Carolin;Zhu,Yachen;Mulia,Nina;Buckley,Charlotte;Lasserre,AurélieM;Rehm,Jürgen;Probst,Charlotte
• 通讯作者: Probst,Charlotte

Here to stay? Policy changes in alcohol home delivery and "to-go" sales during and after COVID-19 in the United States.

在这里停留？

• DOI: 10.1111/dar.13789
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Drug and alcohol review
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Lemp,JuliaM;Kilian,Carolin;Probst,Charlotte
• 通讯作者: Probst,Charlotte

Socioeconomic status, alcohol use disorders, and depression: A population-based study.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2021.12.132
• 发表时间: 2022-03-15
• 期刊: Journal of affective disorders
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: Lasserre AM;Imtiaz S;Roerecke M;Heilig M;Probst C;Rehm J
• 通讯作者: Rehm J

Growing alcohol use preceding death by suicide among women compared with men: age-specific temporal trends, 2003-18.

• DOI: 10.1111/add.15905
• 发表时间: 2022-09
• 期刊: ADDICTION
• 影响因子: 6
• 作者: Lange, Shannon;Kaplan, Mark S.;Tran, Alexander;Rehm, Juergen
• 通讯作者: Rehm, Juergen