Development of Econometric Models for Improved Estimation of Prevention Program B

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议项目的目的是开发和测试错误纠正技术，以评估以社区为基础的普遍预防项目的结果。具体的总体目标是开发分析技术，以改进社区环境中项目有效性的估计。首先，我们建议开发一种分析方法来解决项目有效性测试中的多种偏见来源。其次，我们将把这种新方法应用于正在进行的项目实施的数据分析。第三，我们将估计三个误差来源对个人特征如何影响项目结果的估计的影响程度。拟议的项目是创新的，它结合了现有的误差校正技术，以同时调整多个偏差源。它的重要之处在于，它将通过个人水平与总体水平的分析技术的集成来改进项目有效性的估计。反过来，对方案有效性的改进估计将为决策者和管理人员提供了解人口一级方案影响所需的信息；更准确地计算项目效益；比较同一程序的不同实现；完善程序和招聘策略。公共卫生相关性：拟议的项目将提供更准确估算项目效益的新方法。这将使研究人员能够计算出以社区为基础的预防项目的收益是否超过其财务成本。这些知识有助于决策者决定如何优先分配有限的社会项目资源。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The purpose of the proposed project is to develop and test error correction techniques for evaluating outcomes of community-based universal prevention programs. The specific over-arching goal is to develop analytical techniques for improved estimation of program effectiveness in community settings. We propose, first, to develop an analytic approach to address multiple sources of bias in the testing of program effectiveness. Second, we will apply this novel approach to the analysis of data from an ongoing program implementation. Third, we will estimate the degree to which the three sources of error affect estimates of how individual characteristics impact program outcomes. The proposed project is innovative in its combining of existing error correction techniques to adjust for multiple sources of bias simultaneously. It is significant in that it will result in improved estimation of program effectiveness through the integration of individual-level with aggregate-level analytic techniques. In turn, improved estimation of program effectiveness will provide policy makers and managers the information needed to understand population-level program impact; to calculate program benefits more accurately; to compare different implementations of the same program; and to refine programming and recruitment strategies. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed project will provide new methods of estimating program benefits with greater accuracy. This will enable researchers to calculate whether the benefits of community-based prevention programs out weight their financial costs. Such knowledge is helpful to policy makers as they decide how to prioritize limited resources for social programs.