Are improvements in senescent life expectancy accelerating or decelerating?

描述(由申请人提供)：该项目的主要目标是确定近几十年来发达国家老年预期寿命的增加是加速还是减速。在发达国家，以出生时的传统预期寿命衡量的寿命已经上升了大约两个世纪，但改善的速度正在减速，而且对未来的趋势存在相当大的分歧。悲观主义者认为，我们正在接近预期寿命的极限。相比之下，乐观主义者预计情况会继续改善，没有限制，因为老年人的死亡率正在迅速下降。这些关于未来的相反观点植根于对最近死亡率趋势的分歧。这项拟议的研究将试图通过评估27个发达国家的老龄化预期寿命最近的趋势来解决这一争议。具体目标是：1)制定/确定一套老年预期寿命趋势指标。提出了五项指标：a)在没有非老年死亡率的情况下出生时的预期寿命。这将被视为参考指标；b)65岁时的预期寿命；c)65岁时调整后的预期寿命；d)65岁以上死亡率力量的年龄变化；e)按65岁以上年龄分列的死亡率寿命表的成人分布模式。2)根据这五个指标对老年预期寿命的趋势进行经验估计。所有经验性估计将根据人类死亡率数据库中的数据得出，这些数据涉及1950年以后所有可用年份的27个人口中的男性和女性。3)检验关于1950年以来五个指标趋势异同的三个假设。4)估计老年死亡年龄变化的趋势，并评估其对老年预期寿命趋势的影响。 项目简介：工业化世界人口的迅速老龄化导致对死亡率和老年人口规模的更准确预测的需求日益增长。这项拟议的研究考察了老年预期寿命趋势的替代指标，以阐明关于出生时预期寿命未来趋势的持续争议。这一分析可望对目前老年预期寿命的趋势作出更准确的估计，从而为更准确和更有力地对死亡率以及养恤金和保健系统未来费用进行长期预测奠定基础。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The project's main objective is to determine whether increases in senescent life expectancy in recent decades are accelerating or decelerating in developed countries. Longevity as measured by the conventional life expectancy at birth has risen for about two centuries in the developed world, but the pace of improvement is decelerating and there is considerable disagreement about future trends. Pessimists believe we are approaching limits to life expectancy. In contrast, optimists expect continued improvements with no limits because mortality rates at older ages are declining rapidly. These opposing views about the future are rooted in disagreement about recent trends in mortality. The proposed study will attempt to resolve this controversy by assessing recent trends in senescent life expectancy in 27 developed countries. Specific aims are: 1) Develop/identify a set of indicators of trends in senescent life expectancy. Five indicators are proposed: a) life expectancy at birth in the absence of non-senescent mortality. This will be considered the reference indicator; b) life expectancy at age 65; c) adjusted life expectancy at age 65; d) age shift in the force of mortality at ages 65+; and e) the adult mode of the life table distribution of death rates by age above age 65. 2) Obtain empirical estimates of trends in senescent life expectancy based on these five indicators. All empirical estimates will be derived from data in the Human Mortality Database for females and males in 27 populations for all available years after 1950. 3) Test three hypotheses about similarities and differences in trends in the five indicators since 1950. 4) Estimate trends in the variation in the age at senescent death and assess their impact on trends in senescent life expectancy. Project Narrative: Rapid aging of populations in the industrialized world has led to growing demand for more accurate projections of mortality and of the size of the population of elderly. The proposed research examines alternative indicators of trends in senescent life expectancy to shed light on the ongoing controversy about future trends in life expectancy at birth. This analysis is expected to result in more accurate estimates of current trends in senescent life expectancy thus providing the basis for more accurate and more robust long-range projections of mortality and of the future cost of pension and health care systems.