New model for describing and projecting adult mortality

描述(由申请人提供)：拟议研究的总体目标是开发和测试一种新的方法，以预测按年龄和性别划分的成人死亡率的未来趋势。这一新程序纠正了现有预测方法中的缺陷，包括广泛使用的Lee-Carter模型。对成人死亡率进行更准确的预测，对于改进对最年长年龄群体的人口规模以及公共养老金和医疗保健系统未来成本的预测至关重要。具体目标如下：1)完成对死亡力量年龄模式的Logistic模型的拟合度检验。初步测试使用了来自人类死亡率数据库的14个人口中年龄在25岁至109岁的女性和男性的国别数据，并证明Logistic模型的两个变种很好地适用于1950-2000年期间。这些测试将在8个有这类数据的国家扩大到1950年前的时期。2)检验一般换挡模型的拟合优度。该模型仅使用两个参数来描述成人死亡率随时间的变化：1为老年死亡率的年龄移动量，另一个为背景死亡率水平。这种方法引入了另一种思考衰老死亡率变化的方法。认为死亡率变化意味着特定年龄死亡率增加或减少的传统观点被认为死亡率变化是死亡时间变化的结果的观点所取代。预计该模型将对过去的趋势提供简明的数学描述。3)开发了一种新的方法，基于一般的转移死亡率模型预测随时间变化的年龄-性别特定的成人死亡率。4)将新投影法的结果与Lee-Carter法的投影结果进行比较，对新的投影法进行检验。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The overall objective of the proposed research is to develop and test a new methodology for projecting future trends in adult mortality by age and sex. This new procedure corrects shortcomings in existing forecasting methods, including the widely used Lee-Carter model. More accurate projections of adult mortality are essential to improving projections of the population size of the oldest age groups, and of the future cost of public pension and health care systems. Specific aims are as follows: 1) Complete testing the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the age pattern of the force of mortality. Preliminary tests used country-specific data from the Human Mortality Data Bank for females and males ages 25-109 in 14 populations and demonstrated that 2 variants of the logistic models fit well for the period 1950-2000. These tests will be extended to the pre-1950 period in 8 countries for which such data are available. 2) Test the goodness-of-fit of the general shifting model. This model uses only 2 parameters to describe adult mortality change over time: 1 for the amount of the age shift in senescent mortality and the other for the level of background mortality. This approach introduces an alternative way of thinking about senescent mortality change. The conventional view that mortality change implies increases or decreases in age-specific mortality rates is replaced with the view that considers mortality change to be the result of changes in the timing of death. The model is expected to provide a concise mathematical description of past trends. 3) Develop a new methodology for projecting age-sex specific adult mortality rates over time based on the general shifting mortality model. 4) Test the new projection method by comparing its results with projections produced by the Lee-Carter procedure.