Marriage and Economic Opportunity in the U.S., 1960-2000

美国的婚姻和经济机会，1960-2000 年

• 批准号: 7184455
• 负责人: CATHERINE A FITCH
• 金额: $ 18.23万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-04-14 至 2010-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7184455
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; African American; Age; American; Archives; Behavior; Behavioral Research; Censuses; Child; Collaborations; Condition; Confidentiality; Data; Data Collection; Data Set; Data Sources; Disclosure; Drug Formulations; Economic Conditions; Economics; Ensure; Ethnic Origin; Female; Foundations; Future; Gender; Gender Role; Geographic Locations; Health; Hispanics; Marketing; Marriage; Marriage Pattern; Measures; Medical; Minnesota; Minority; Mission; Modeling; Not Hispanic or Latino; Numbers; Occupations; Perception; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Population Research; Preparation; Public Policy; Race; Recording of previous events; Research; Research Personnel; Resources; Running; Sample Size; Series; Standards of Weights and Measures; Subgroup; Testing; Time; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Wages; Woman; Work; base; labor force participation; male; men; programs; women employment

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This research will assess the impact of changes in male and female economic opportunity on marriage formation in the United States since 1960. The rise in median age at first marriage over the past four decades is one of the most dramatic and consequential demographic shifts in American history. Initially, most analysts ascribed the change to rising economic opportunity and employment of women. More recently, however, demographic researchers have focused on men, contending that stagnant or declining male economic opportunity in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to the unprecedented delay in marriage by reducing the supply of marriageable men. This project will test the hypothesis that changes in both male and female economic opportunity affected the shift in marriage formation. In particular, the study will test whether the relationship between female opportunity and marriage formation has evolved since 1960. According to the hypothesis, rising female opportunity discouraged marriage, but that effect diminished over time; after 1970, the decline in the supply of young men with good jobs was increasingly associated with late marriage. The central aim is to assess historical changes in the effects of changing male and female opportunity simultaneously. Multi-level analysis will be used to assess the relationship between local economic conditions-measured as wage distributions and labor-force participation-and the marriage decisions of young men and women. The analyses will include separate models by gender, race, and ethnicity. This study will capitalize on a vast new archive of restricted-access long-form census data currently in preparation by the Census Bureau in collaboration with the Minnesota Population Center (IPUMS Redesign, NIH R01- HD43392). This data series includes the complete long-form census returns for the period from 1960 to 2000. The work is directly relevant to the mission of the NIH as the steward of medical and behavioral research for the nation: the changes in marriage behavior have direct and profound implications for the health and well-being of American adults and children.

这项研究将评估自1960年以来美国男性和女性经济机会变化对婚姻形成的影响。在过去的四十年里，初婚年龄中位数的上升是美国历史上最引人注目和最重要的人口变化之一。最初，大多数分析人士将这一变化归因于经济机会和妇女就业的增加。然而，最近，人口统计学研究人员把重点放在男性身上，认为20世纪70年代和80年代男性经济机会的停滞或下降减少了适婚男性的供应，从而导致了前所未有的婚姻延迟。这个项目将检验这一假设，即男性和女性经济机会的变化影响了婚姻形成的转变。特别是，该研究将测试女性机会和婚姻形成之间的关系是否自1960年以来有所演变。根据这一假设，女性机会的增加阻碍了婚姻，但这种影响随着时间的推移而减弱; 1970年后，拥有好工作的年轻男性供应的减少越来越多地与晚婚有关。主要目的是评估历史上男女机会同时变化的影响。多层次分析将被用来评估当地经济状况（以工资分配和劳动力参与率衡量）与年轻男女婚姻决定之间的关系。分析将包括按性别、人种和种族划分的单独模型。这项研究将利用人口普查局目前与明尼苏达州人口中心（IPUMS重新设计，NIH R 01-HD 43392）合作准备的大量限制访问的长格式人口普查数据的新档案。这一数据系列包括1960年至2000年期间完整的长式人口普查报告。这项工作与NIH作为国家医学和行为研究管理者的使命直接相关：婚姻行为的变化对美国成年人和儿童的健康和福祉有着直接而深远的影响。