AMAZONIAN DEFORESTATION AND THE STRUCTURE OF HOUSEHOLDS (PHASE III)

亚马逊森林砍伐和家庭结构（第三阶段）

• 批准号: 7648240
• 负责人: Emilio Federico Moran
• 金额: $ 53.19万
• 依托单位: TRUSTEES OF INDIANA UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-02-01 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7648240
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Aging; Agriculture; Area; Budgets; Businesses; Capital; Carbon; Characteristics; Child; Cities; Cohort Effect; Data; Data Set; Databases; Deforestation; Economic Development; Economics; Education; Employment; Environment; Event; Exogenous Factors; Family; Farming environment; Fertility; Generations; Growth; Health; Home environment; Household; Human; Image; Income; Individual; Industry; Inequality; Investments; Life Cycle Stages; Link; Malaria; Maps; Occupations; Outcome; Pattern; Pattern Formation; Phase; Play; Population; Precipitation; Process; Production; Productivity; Property; Rain; Recording of previous events; Research; Role; Rural; Sales; Sampling; Scientist; Series; Services; Site; Soil; Soybeans; Structure; Study Section; Surveys; Sustainable Development; System; Temperature; Testing; Time; Transportation; Tropical Climate; Unemployment; Update; Urbanization; Water; base; climate change; comparative; design; economic impact; environmental change; experience; farmer; follow-up; forest; frontier; infrastructure development; land cover; land use; migration; public health relevance; remote sensing; residence; response; rural area; rural-urban migration; severe weather; social; socioeconomics; theories; urban area

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project addresses the reciprocal relationship between population and environment in frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon by focusing on the linked processes of social, economic, demographic, and environmental change. In earlier studies we examined the role of the domestic cycle on land use and distinguished between period and cohort effects, and discovered that a property cycle explained more of the dynamics of change in land cover than a household cycle, particularly after the first generation. In this phase of the study we use as a unifying conceptual framework Forest Transition Theory, and expand our focus to address the role played by the social and economic integration of urban and rural areas, and the growing role of capital investment in large-scale mechanized agriculture and ranching that appears to be transforming the landscape. We examine land use and land cover change at the property and regional level, and focus on two mechanisms posited by Forest Transition Theory to link economic development and forest cover change: migration and agricultural intensification. In the previous phase, we conducted follow up surveys in previously surveyed households and properties at our first study site (Altamira). In this phase, we will carry out follow up surveys in previously surveyed households and properties in Santarim (our second study site), add urban samples for each of these two previously studied areas (Altamira and Santarem), and add a new study site in the epicenter of mechanized soybean expansion in the state of Mato Grosso, at Lucas do Rio Verde where we will sample both large scale rural and urban residents. We will acquire satellite date to update the coverage for the two previously studied areas, and a complete set of data for the past 30 years of change in the new study site as we propose a strong comparative design that will allow us to make inferences about the role of endogenous and exogenous factors in household, property, and landscape dynamics. The use of Forest Transition Theory will help extend the applicability of findings to other frontier regions. With the additional study area, this will be the largest social survey carried out in the Amazon region, with more than 1,000 properties and more than 2,500 households, covering an area in excess of 10,000 square kilometers. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project explores the social and economic processes associated with land use and land cover change, particularly deforestation, in the Brazilian Amazon. Local impacts include increases in malaria, increases in temperature (with adverse health impacts in a tropical climate), and changes in precipitation patterns (potentially decreasing the availability of clean water). Global impacts, through effects on the global carbon budget, include adverse health impacts of severe weather events and climate changes impacting directly on human health and indirectly through declining agricultural productivity.

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目通过关注社会，经济，人口和环境变化的链接过程，解决了巴西亚马逊边境地区的人口与环境之间的相互关系。在较早的研究中，我们研究了国内周期在土地使用中的作用，并区分了周期和队列效应，并发现财产周期比家庭循环（尤其是在第一代之后）解释了土地覆盖的变化动态的更多。在研究的这一阶段，我们将其用作统一的概念框架森林过渡理论，并扩大了我们的重点，以解决城市和农村地区的社会和经济融合的作用，以及资本投资在大规模机械化农业和牧场中的不断增长，这似乎正在改变景观。我们研究了土地利用和土地覆盖的变化，并着重于森林过渡理论提出的两种机制，以将经济发展和森林覆盖的变化联系起来：移民和农业强化。在上一阶段，我们在先前调查的家庭和财产（Altamira）进行了后续调查。 In this phase, we will carry out follow up surveys in previously surveyed households and properties in Santarim (our second study site), add urban samples for each of these two previously studied areas (Altamira and Santarem), and add a new study site in the epicenter of mechanized soybean expansion in the state of Mato Grosso, at Lucas do Rio Verde where we will sample both large scale rural and urban residents.我们将获得卫星日期，以更新以前研究的区域的覆盖范围，并在新研究地点进行了30年变化的完整数据集，因为我们提出了强大的比较设计，这将使我们能够推断出内源性和外源性因素在家庭，财产，物业和景观动力学中的作用。森林过渡理论的使用将有助于将发现的适用性扩展到其他边境地区。在额外的研究区域，这将是亚马逊地区进行的最大社会调查，拥有1,000多个物业和2500多个家庭，覆盖了超过10,000平方公里的地区。公共卫生相关性：该项目探讨了巴西亚马逊中与土地使用和土地覆盖变化，尤其是森林砍伐相关的社会和经济过程。局部影响包括疟疾的升高，温度升高（在热带气候下对健康的影响不利）以及降水模式的变化（可能降低了清水的可用性）。通过对全球碳预算的影响，全球影响包括恶劣天气事件的不利影响以及直接影响人类健康的气候变化，并通过下降的农业生产力而间接影响。