Multi-level Modular Agent-based Modeling for the Study of Childhood Obesity

描述（由申请人提供）：我们建议开发和应用一种新的模块化基于主体的建模方法，用于儿童肥胖的多层次研究，重点是饮食。这里设想的研究是由首席研究员Dube领导的跨学科团队以大脑到社会系统（BtS）的方法来研究饮食和肥胖预防的发展，其中包括与本提案最相关的每个领域的专家。在布鲁金斯学会的Co-I Hammond的领导下，我们建议在多学科和多层次的基于主体的建模工作的基础上，开发一种基于主体的方法的新扩展——一种“模块化”方法，它允许单独考虑每个分析层次，但重要的是，它允许直接集成“模块”来研究多层次的反馈和相互作用。模块化ABM将检查预期调节影响饮食行为和体重（BMI）的复杂生物/环境相互作用的五个影响水平：(1)遗传学（多巴胺能基因系统DRD2 DRD4）；(2)神经生物学（多巴胺纹状体和执行控制功能）；(3)心理倾向（约束/解除抑制和奖励敏感性）；(4)家庭（儿童依恋类型与母亲孕期/幼儿期焦虑/抑郁、环境逆境、粮食安全和贫困）；(5)社会因素（母亲社会规范与社会资本、家庭饮食环境）。abm生成的合成数据将与MAVAN队列（由联合i Robert Levitan和Michael Meaney领导）现有的纵向经验数据进行比较，MAVAN队列是一个母亲和她们的孩子的样本，从怀孕到出生，在纵向主题内设计中观察，以检查基因-环境相互作用和神经发育。在这个为期5年的项目中，这里提出的具体研究目标是：(1)利用儿童早期数据（0-4岁），为与儿童肥胖相关的遗传、神经认知、心理、家庭和社会/环境五个层面的分析构建独立的基于主体的“模块化”模型；(2)整合ABM的多个模块并探索各层面之间的反馈回路；(3)测试模块化ABM对5-7岁关键过渡时期的预测能力。(4)利用功能数据分析对模块化ABM模型进行进一步验证。完整的模型将有助于随后探索干预措施的潜在政策设计，以及预测已确定趋势的影响。本项目开发的模块化ABM方法也可用于研究其他同样复杂的问题。简而言之，本项目将开发一种新的多层次方法（基于主体的模块化计算模型），并将其应用于儿童肥胖研究，以提高我们对儿童肥胖的多层次决定因素的理解，并帮助设计更有效的多层次干预措施，考虑影响儿童饮食和身体活动的生物、家庭、社区、社会文化、环境、政策和宏观经济因素。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to develop and apply a novel modular agent-based modeling approach for the multilevel study of childhood obesity, with a focus on eating. The research envisioned here is anchored in the brain-to-society system (BtS) approach to the study of eating and obesity prevention in development by a trans-disciplinary team lead by principal investigator Dube, and includes experts from each of the fields most relevant to this proposal. Under the leadership of Co-I Hammond from the Brookings Institution, we propose to build upon agent-based modeling work that is both multi-disciplinary and multi-level, to develop a novel extension of the agent-based methodology-a "modular" approach that will allow separate consideration of each level of analysis, but importantly will permit straightforward integration of the "modules" to study multi-level feedbacks and interactions. The modular ABM will examine five levels of influence expected to modulate the complex biology/environment interactions influencing eating behaviors and body weight (BMI): (1) genetics (dopaminergic gene systems DRD2 DRD4); (2) neurobiology (dopamine-striatal and executive control functions); (3) psychological predisposition (restraint/ disinhibition and sensitivity to reward); (4) family (child's attachment style and mother anxiety/depression during pregnancy/early childhood, environmental adversity, food security and poverty); (5) social (mother's social norms and social capital, home food environment). ABM-generated synthetic data will be compared to existing longitudinal empirical data from the MAVAN cohort (lead by Co-I Robert Levitan and Michael Meaney), a sample of mothers and their children observed in a longitudinal within-subject design from the time of pregnancy and birth to examine gene-environment interactions and neurodevelopment. The specific aims of the research proposed here, over the course of the 5- year project, are: (1) to construct separate agent-based "modular" models for each of five levels of analysis relevant to childhood obesity-genetic, neuro-cognitive, psychological, family, and social/environmental--using early childhood data (0-4 years), (2) to integrate multiple modules of the ABM and explore feedback loops between levels, (3) to test the predictive ability of the modular ABM for the key transitional period of 5-7 years, and (4) to provide further validation of the modular ABM models using functional data analysis. The complete model will enable subsequent exploration of potential policy design of interventions, as well as projection of the implications of identified trends. The modular ABM methodology developed in this project would also be of use for the study of other, similarly complex problems. In brief, then, this project will both develop a novel multilevel methodology (modular agent-based computational modeling) and apply it to the study of childhood obesity to improve our understanding of the multilevel determinants of childhood obesity and help design more effective multilevel interventions that consider the range of biological, family, community, socio-cultural, environmental, policy, and macro-level economic factors that influence diet and physical activity in children. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project will develop a novel multi-level methodology (modular agent-based computational modeling; ABM) and apply it to the study of childhood obesity to improve our understanding of the multilevel determinants of childhood obesity, with a focus on eating. ABM-generated synthetic data will be compared to existing longitudinal empirical data from a cohort of low socio-economic status mothers and their children observed in a longitudinal within-subject design from the time of pregnancy and birth to examine gene-environment interactions and neurodevelopment. The outcome will help design more effective multilevel interventions that consider the range of biological, family, community, socio-cultural, environmental, policy, and macro-level economic factors that influence diet and body weight in children.