Modeling the impact of tobacco regulations on US future trends of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

模拟烟草法规对美国慢性阻塞性肺疾病未来趋势的影响。

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    10340363
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 15.87万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2021-09-15 至 2026-08-31
  • 项目状态:
    未结题

项目摘要

PROJECT SUMMARY This application is designed to provide me with the mentoring experience, training and access to resources from expert modeling groups that will allow me to achieve my long-term career goal to become an independent investigator with expertise in conducting population simulation modeling science for tobacco regulatory policy based on a systems thinking approach. My planned training and research activities will be guided by my mentors, Drs. David T Levy and Rafael Meza, well-known experts in the area of tobacco simulation modeling and regulatory science, and a team of expert collaborators and are intended to: increase my knowledge about the pathophysiology of pulmonary diseases, epidemiology and association between tobacco and respiratory diseases (i.e. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease COPD); acquire technical skills for the development and implementation of simulation modeling for impact analysis of tobacco regulatory policies; and develop specialized knowledge in the translation of tobacco simulation modeling results to inform policies. The objective of this research project is to build a COPD natural history model based on individual smoking (cigarette use) histories, that will be used to predict the long-term population impact of two FDA tobacco regulatory actions on COPD disease burden. COPD is one of the principal causes of morbidity and mortality in the US. The majority of the COPD cases could be prevented by reducing cigarette use. However, it is not yet clear the long-term impact of emergent regulations on recent cigarette use behaviors and chronic respiratory diseases like COPD. Understanding the long-term health respiratory effects of tobacco products is one of the FDA-Center for Tobacco Products' (CTP) highest priority. This study will produce evidence, using a public health standard, about the impact of cigarette-oriented control policies on COPD trends to inform FDA tobacco regulations. The project has three aims. Aim 1: Determining the impact of longitudinal changes in smoking behavior on lung function and COPD mortality: a Markov Model Analysis. Using data from the COPDGene cohort, I will assess how changes in smoking behaviors impact the lung function decline and mortality of tobacco associated COPD. Aim 2 Develop a COPD Natural History microsimulation model (COPD-NHM) to estimate the future COPD incidence, prevalence and COPD associated respiratory and lung cancer deaths dependent on individual smoking histories (baseline scenario). Aim 3. Predict potential US future trends in COPD under two FDA tobacco regulatory scenarios. The validated COPD-NHM will be used to estimate the population impact of 1. cigarette pack graphic health warnings and 2. menthol cigarettes ban on COPD morbidity and mortality. The proposed research will lead to the submission of an R01 award to expand the COPD-NHM to include other non-cigarette products, and other relevant behavioral, sociodemographic and biological characteristics to encompass the various ways in which novel tobacco or ENDS regulatory policies could impact COPD and COPD associated cancer progression.
项目总结

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

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Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero其他文献

The actual and anticipated effects of a menthol cigarette ban: a scoping review
  • DOI:
    10.1186/s12889-020-09055-z
  • 发表时间:
    2020-07-09
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.600
  • 作者:
    Christopher J. Cadham;Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero;Nancy L. Fleischer;Ritesh Mistry;Jana L. Hirschtick;Rafael Meza;David T. Levy
  • 通讯作者:
    David T. Levy

Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero', 18)}}的其他基金

Modeling the impact of tobacco regulations on US future trends of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.
模拟烟草法规对美国慢性阻塞性肺疾病未来趋势的影响。
  • 批准号:
    10684891
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15.87万
  • 项目类别:

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    面上项目

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