Development and validation of an agent-based model to promote evidence-based control of Taenia solium cysticercosis

开发和验证基于代理的模型，以促进猪带绦虫囊尾蚴病的循证控制

• 批准号: 10654787
• 负责人: Seth E O'Neal
• 金额: $ 63.33万
• 依托单位: OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-01 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10654787
• 关键词: Address; Africa; Africa South of the Sahara; African; Antiparasitic Agents; Area; Asia; Behavior; Behavior Therapy; Biological; Brain; Calibration; Cestoda; Clinical Research; Collaborations; Combined Modality Therapy; Consumption; Country; Cysticercosis; Data; Defecation; Development; Economics; Environment; Environmental Pollution; Epilepsy; European; Exposure to; Face; Family suidae; Feces; Frequencies; Goals; Health; Human; Immunity; Infection; Infrastructure; Intervention; Intervention Trial; Investments; Laboratory Study; Latin America; Lesion; Modeling; Movement; Neurocysticercosis; Outcome; Parasites; Pattern; Performance; Persons; Peru; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policy Maker; Population; Positioning Attribute; Predisposition; Probability; Process; Productivity; Public Health; Publishing; Recommendation; Research; Resistance; Resources; Risk Estimate; Running; Sanitation; Series; Structure; Taenia solium; Target Populations; Teniasis; Testing; Uncertainty; Update; Vaccination; Vaccines; Validation; Work; World Health Organization; Zambia; acquired epilepsy; calcification; control trial; cost; data repository; design; disability-adjusted life years; disorder control; egg; epidemiology study; evidence base; experience; experimental study; field study; flexibility; foodborne; human migration; improved; in silico; infectious disease model; laboratory experiment; low and middle-income countries; models and simulation; novel; novel diagnostics; predictive modeling; preventable epilepsy; programs; prospective; rural area; scale up; screening; seropositive; social; success; timeline; tool; transmission process; uptake; working group

PROJECT SUMMARY Taenia solium, the pork tapeworm, is a leading cause of acquired epilepsy in low and middle income countries. Endemic transmission occurs primarily in rural areas where pigs are allowed to roam freely and consume human feces. Control and/or elimination of T. solium transmission is possible through application of anti-parasitic treatment to human tapeworm carriers or pigs, vaccination of pigs, or other social-behavioral interventions (e.g., sanitation, corralling). The critical question that policy-makers now face is which intervention strategies should be recommended for different endemic settings – specifically, what intervention combinations, frequencies, durations, and target populations are optimal for achieving a given control outcome? Infectious disease models are excellent tools for answering these questions, as they can be deployed to test a wide range of strategies in a variety of settings prior to investing massive resources in prospective trials. While prior models for T. solium transmission have been previously developed, no existing model has been validated with data from prospective trials, and none incorporate a spatial framework that can account for clustered transmission patterns observed in endemic areas. These limitations have severely limited the utility of prior models. This proposal specifically addresses these limitations to ensure that the delivered model can be directly applied to improve control and elimination for T. solium. The objective of the proposed research is to develop a definitive T. solium simulation model called CystiMASON, which will build on our group’s prior modeling experience (CystiSim and CystiAgent models), and address the shortcomings of previous T. solium models. To achieve this goal, we propose a series of field and laboratory experiments that will define environmental and biological parameters critical to CystiMASON accuracy (Aim 1). These experiments will increase the precision of model parameters and reduce uncertainty in model outcomes. As data from these studies are generated, they will be integrated into the successive version of CystiMASON, which will be calibrated and validated using a repository of data from prospective trials conducted in Peru (Aim 2). Finally, we will use data available from prospective trials conducted in Zambia to validate CystiMASON to a sub-Saharan African setting and compare the accuracy of CyistMASON in this endemic setting with other available models (Aim 3). After the completion of this research, the final CystiMASON model will be a key resource for policy-makers who seek to evaluate strategies for the control or elimination of cysticercosis in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.

项目摘要 猪带绦虫，即猪肉绦虫，是低收入和中等收入国家获得性癫痫的主要原因。 地方性传播主要发生在允许猪自由走动和吃人的农村地区 粪便控制和/或消除T.通过应用抗寄生虫剂， 对人绦虫携带者或猪的治疗、猪的疫苗接种，或其它社会行为干预（例如， 卫生、畜栏）。决策者现在面临的关键问题是， 建议在不同的地方病环境中使用-具体而言，什么样的干预组合，频率， 持续时间和目标人群是实现给定控制结果的最佳选择？传染病模型 是回答这些问题的优秀工具，因为它们可以用于测试各种策略， 在投入大量资源进行前瞻性试验之前，而T.绦虫 传输以前已经开发，没有现有的模型已经验证了数据，从前瞻性 试验，没有一个纳入一个空间框架，可以解释所观察到的聚集传播模式 在流行地区。这些局限性严重限制了现有模型的实用性。这一建议具体 解决了这些限制，以确保交付的模型可以直接应用于改进控制， 淘汰T.索利亚 本研究的目的是建立一个确定的T。一个叫做CystiMASON的模拟模型， 这将建立在我们小组以前的建模经验（CystiSim和CystiAgent模型），并解决 现有T. solium模型为了实现这一目标，我们提出了一系列的现场和实验室 这些实验将定义对CystiMASON准确性至关重要的环境和生物参数（目标1）。 这些实验将提高模型参数的精度，减少模型结果的不确定性。 随着这些研究的数据生成，它们将被集成到CystiMASON的后续版本中， 该方法将使用在秘鲁（Aim）进行的前瞻性试验的数据库进行校准和验证 2）。最后，我们将使用在赞比亚进行的前瞻性试验中获得的数据来验证CystiMASON的有效性。 撒哈拉以南非洲的环境，并比较CyistMASON在这种地方性环境中的准确性与其他 现有模式（目标3）。这项研究完成后，最终的CystiMASON模型将是一个关键 为寻求评估控制或消除囊虫病战略的决策者提供的资源 美国和撒哈拉以南非洲。

项目成果

CystiHuman: A model of human neurocysticercosis.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010118
• 发表时间: 2022-05
• 期刊: PLoS computational biology
• 影响因子: 4.3

Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: PLoS neglected tropical diseases
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Pray IW;Pizzitutti F;Bonnet G;Gonzales-Gustavson E;Wakeland W;Pan WK;Lambert WE;Gonzalez AE;Garcia HH;O'Neal SE;Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru.
• 通讯作者: Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru.