Development and validation of an agent-based model to promote evidence-based control of Taenia solium cysticercosis

开发和验证基于代理的模型，以促进猪带绦虫囊尾蚴病的循证控制

• 批准号: 9815372
• 负责人: Seth E O'Neal
• 金额: $ 68.34万
• 依托单位: OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-01 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9815372
• 关键词: Address; Africa; Africa South of the Sahara; African; Antiparasitic Agents; Area; Asia; Behavior; Behavior Therapy; Biological; Brain; Cestoda; Clinical Research; Collaborations; Computer Simulation; Consumption; Country; Cysticercosis; Data; Defecation; Development; Ensure; Environment; Environmental Pollution; Epilepsy; European; Exposure to; Face; Family suidae; Feces; Frequencies; Goals; Human; Immunity; Infection; Infrastructure; Intervention; Intervention Trial; Laboratory Study; Latin America; Lesion; Modeling; Movement; Neurocysticercosis; Optimum Populations; Outcome; Parasites; Pattern; Performance; Peru; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policy Maker; Population; Positioning Attribute; Predisposition; Probability; Process; Productivity; Public Health; Publishing; Research; Resistance; Resources; Risk Estimate; Running; Sanitation; Series; Structure; Taenia solium; Target Populations; Teniasis; Testing; TimeLine; Uncertainty; Update; Vaccination; Vaccines; Validation; Work; World Health Organization; Zambia; base; calcification; control trial; cost; data warehouse; design; disability-adjusted life years; disorder control; egg; epidemiology study; evidence base; experience; experimental study; field study; flexibility; foodborne; health economics; human migration; improved; infectious disease model; laboratory experiment; low and middle-income countries; models and simulation; novel; novel diagnostics; predictive modeling; programs; prospective; rural area; scale up; screening; seropositive; social; success; tool; transmission process; uptake; working group

PROJECT SUMMARY Taenia solium, the pork tapeworm, is a leading cause of acquired epilepsy in low and middle income countries. Endemic transmission occurs primarily in rural areas where pigs are allowed to roam freely and consume human feces. Control and/or elimination of T. solium transmission is possible through application of anti-parasitic treatment to human tapeworm carriers or pigs, vaccination of pigs, or other social-behavioral interventions (e.g., sanitation, corralling). The critical question that policy-makers now face is which intervention strategies should be recommended for different endemic settings – specifically, what intervention combinations, frequencies, durations, and target populations are optimal for achieving a given control outcome? Infectious disease models are excellent tools for answering these questions, as they can be deployed to test a wide range of strategies in a variety of settings prior to investing massive resources in prospective trials. While prior models for T. solium transmission have been previously developed, no existing model has been validated with data from prospective trials, and none incorporate a spatial framework that can account for clustered transmission patterns observed in endemic areas. These limitations have severely limited the utility of prior models. This proposal specifically addresses these limitations to ensure that the delivered model can be directly applied to improve control and elimination for T. solium. The objective of the proposed research is to develop a definitive T. solium simulation model called CystiMASON, which will build on our group’s prior modeling experience (CystiSim and CystiAgent models), and address the shortcomings of previous T. solium models. To achieve this goal, we propose a series of field and laboratory experiments that will define environmental and biological parameters critical to CystiMASON accuracy (Aim 1). These experiments will increase the precision of model parameters and reduce uncertainty in model outcomes. As data from these studies are generated, they will be integrated into the successive version of CystiMASON, which will be calibrated and validated using a repository of data from prospective trials conducted in Peru (Aim 2). Finally, we will use data available from prospective trials conducted in Zambia to validate CystiMASON to a sub-Saharan African setting and compare the accuracy of CyistMASON in this endemic setting with other available models (Aim 3). After the completion of this research, the final CystiMASON model will be a key resource for policy-makers who seek to evaluate strategies for the control or elimination of cysticercosis in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.

项目概要 猪带绦虫（猪肉绦虫）是低收入和中等收入国家获得性癫痫的主要原因。 地方性传播主要发生在农村地区，那里的猪被允许自由活动并吃人。 屎。通过应用抗寄生虫药物可以控制和/或消除猪蠕虫的传播 对人类绦虫携带者或猪的治疗、猪的疫苗接种或其他社会行为干预措施（例如， 卫生、畜栏）。政策制定者现在面临的关键问题是应该采取哪些干预策略 针对不同的流行环境提出建议——具体来说，哪些干预组合、频率、 持续时间和目标人群是实现给定控制结果的最佳选择？传染病模型 是回答这些问题的优秀工具，因为它们可以用来测试各种策略 在投入大量资源进行前瞻性试验之前进行各种设置。而之前的 T. solium 模型 之前已经开发了传输系统，但尚未使用前瞻性数据验证现有模型 试验中，没有一个包含可以解释观察到的集群传播模式的空间框架 在流行地区。这些限制严重限制了先前模型的实用性。该提案具体 解决了这些限制，以确保交付的模型可以直接应用于改进控制和 消除 T. solium。 拟议研究的目标是开发一个名为 CystiMASON 的权威 T. solium 模拟模型， 这将建立在我们团队之前的建模经验（CystiSim 和 CystiAgent 模型）的基础上，并解决 以前的 T. solium 模型的缺点。为了实现这一目标，我们提出了一系列的现场和实验室 定义对 CystiMASON 准确性至关重要的环境和生物参数的实验（目标 1）。 这些实验将提高模型参数的精度并减少模型结果的不确定性。 这些研究的数据生成后，将被整合到 CystiMASON 的后续版本中， 它将使用在秘鲁进行的前瞻性试验的数据存储库进行校准和验证（目标 2）。最后，我们将使用在赞比亚进行的前瞻性试验中获得的数据来验证 CystiMASON 的有效性 撒哈拉以南非洲环境，并将 CyistMASON 在这种流行环境中的准确性与其他环境进行比较 可用模型（目标 3）。这项研究完成后，最终的CystiMASON模型将是关键 为寻求评估控制或消除囊尾蚴病策略的政策制定者提供的资源（拉丁文） 美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲。