Global-, regional-, and country-level prevalence of young children exposed to risks of poor development in low- and middle-income countries: an update

项目摘要 幼儿发展（ECD）在塑造个人的一生健康，发展， 和社会福利。确保所有女孩和男孩都能获得高质量的幼儿发展， 可持续发展目标（SDGs）。早期的逆境被发现与穷人的风险增加有关。 早期发展和入学不足，收入损失，以及后期的身心健康问题 生活对儿童在幼年时期面临发育不良风险的普遍程度进行量化， 重要的是要了解的挑战，实现幼儿的发展潜力，确定 政策干预领域，评估消除风险的进展情况。2007年和2017年Lancet 幼儿发展系列率先努力编制（分别为2004年和2010年的）全球幼儿发展估计数， 区域和国家一级低收入和低收入国家面临发育迟缓或极端贫困的幼儿的发生率 中等收入国家（LMIC）。这些估计数经常被政策文件引用， 学术论文。 拟议的研究将更新中低收入国家的流行率估计数，有两个具体目标。(1)使用 最新的数据和极端贫困的新定义，我们将产生年轻人的综合衡量标准。 135个低收入国家的儿童在四个时期（2000-2005年、2006- 2010年）面临发育迟缓或极端贫困的情况 2010年、2011-2015年和2016年以后）。这些证据将使我们能够评估减少年轻人的进展， 在过去20年里，特别是在可持续发展目标时代，儿童暴露于这两种风险。(2)更好地 为了了解减少中低收入国家发展不良风险的挑战，我们将增加两个风险（低 低收入国家的一个亚组的综合衡量标准， 家庭调查中的数据。我们还将评估社会人口结构的水平和趋势， 在国家和总体一级，按年龄、性别和居住地区分列的风险暴露差异。评估 差距将使我们能够确定这些国家中最脆弱的幼儿。审查 为确保这两项目标的结果稳健，我们亦会采用中度贫穷量度， 根据我们的估计，世界银行的定义。

Project Summary Early childhood development (ECD) plays a crucial role in shaping an individual’s lifetime health, development, and social wellbeing. Ensuring all girls’ and boys’ access to quality ECD is one of the components of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Early adversities are found to be linked with increased risk of poor early development and deficit in schooling year, income loss, and mental and physical health issues in later life. Quantifying the prevalence of children being exposed to the risks of poor development in their early life is important for understanding the challenges of fulfilling young children’s developmental potential, identifying areas for policy interventions, and evaluating the progress of eliminating the risks. The 2007 and 2017 Lancet ECD Series spearheaded the efforts of generating the estimates (for 2004 and 2010 respectively) of global-, regional-, and country-level prevalence of young children exposed to stunting or extreme poverty in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These estimates have been frequently cited by policy documents and academic papers. The proposed study will update the estimates of prevalence in LMICs with two specific aims. (1) Using the most updated data and a new definition of extreme poverty, we will generate composite measures of young children’s exposure to stunting or extreme poverty in 135 LMICs over four time periods (2000-2005, 2006- 2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-thereafter). The evidence will allow us to assess the progress in reducing young children’s exposure to the two risks in the past 20 years, especially during the era of SDGs. (2) To better understand the challenges of reducing the risks of poor development in LMICs, we will add two more risks (low maternal schooling and maltreatment in early life) to the composite measure for a subgroup of LMICs that have data available in their household surveys. We will also assess the levels and trends of socio-demographic disparities in risk exposure by age, sex, and residential area at the country- and aggregate-level. Assessing disparities will allow us to identify the most vulnerable young children in these countries. To examine the robustness of the findings derived from these two aims, we will also use the moderate poverty measure, defined by the World Bank, in our estimation.