Global-, regional-, and country-level prevalence of young children exposed to risks of poor development in low- and middle-income countries: an update

项目摘要 儿童早期发展(ECD)在塑造一个人的终生健康、发育、 和社会福利。确保所有女孩和男孩都能获得高质量的幼儿发展是 可持续发展目标(SDGs)。早期的逆境被发现与贫穷风险的增加有关。 早期发展和学业不足，收入损失，以及以后的心理和身体健康问题 生活。量化儿童在早期阶段暴露于发育不良风险的流行率是 对于理解实现幼儿发展潜力的挑战，确定 政策干预领域，以及评估消除风险的进展情况。2007年和2017年的《柳叶刀》 ECD系列带头努力生成(分别为2004年和2010年)全球-- 在低收入和低收入地区暴露于发育迟缓或极端贫困的幼儿在区域和国家一级的流行率 中等收入国家(LMIC)。这些估计经常被政策文件引用， 学术论文。 拟议的研究将更新对低收入中等收入国家患病率的估计，并有两个具体目标。(1)使用 最新的数据和极端贫困的新定义，我们将产生年轻人的综合衡量标准 四个时期(2000-2005年、2006年--)135个低收入中等收入国家的儿童在发育迟缓或赤贫中的暴露情况 2010年、2011-2015年和2016年--此后)。这些证据将使我们能够评估在减少青少年 过去20年，特别是在可持续发展目标时代，儿童暴露在这两种风险之下。(2)做得更好 了解降低低收入国家发展不良风险的挑战，我们将再增加两个风险(低 将母亲受教育和早年虐待)扩展到有以下情况的一组LMIC的综合衡量标准 在他们的家庭调查中可获得的数据。我们还将评估社会人口的水平和趋势。 按年龄、性别和居住地划分的国家--和总体--风险暴露的差异。正在评估 差距将使我们能够确定这些国家中最脆弱的幼儿。要检查 为了确保这两个目标得出的结果的稳健性，我们还将使用中等贫困衡量标准， 据我们估计，这是由世界银行定义的。

Project Summary Early childhood development (ECD) plays a crucial role in shaping an individual’s lifetime health, development, and social wellbeing. Ensuring all girls’ and boys’ access to quality ECD is one of the components of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Early adversities are found to be linked with increased risk of poor early development and deficit in schooling year, income loss, and mental and physical health issues in later life. Quantifying the prevalence of children being exposed to the risks of poor development in their early life is important for understanding the challenges of fulfilling young children’s developmental potential, identifying areas for policy interventions, and evaluating the progress of eliminating the risks. The 2007 and 2017 Lancet ECD Series spearheaded the efforts of generating the estimates (for 2004 and 2010 respectively) of global-, regional-, and country-level prevalence of young children exposed to stunting or extreme poverty in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These estimates have been frequently cited by policy documents and academic papers. The proposed study will update the estimates of prevalence in LMICs with two specific aims. (1) Using the most updated data and a new definition of extreme poverty, we will generate composite measures of young children’s exposure to stunting or extreme poverty in 135 LMICs over four time periods (2000-2005, 2006- 2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-thereafter). The evidence will allow us to assess the progress in reducing young children’s exposure to the two risks in the past 20 years, especially during the era of SDGs. (2) To better understand the challenges of reducing the risks of poor development in LMICs, we will add two more risks (low maternal schooling and maltreatment in early life) to the composite measure for a subgroup of LMICs that have data available in their household surveys. We will also assess the levels and trends of socio-demographic disparities in risk exposure by age, sex, and residential area at the country- and aggregate-level. Assessing disparities will allow us to identify the most vulnerable young children in these countries. To examine the robustness of the findings derived from these two aims, we will also use the moderate poverty measure, defined by the World Bank, in our estimation.