Bayesian Mortality Estimation from Disparate Data Sources

项目摘要：该提案的目标是为死亡率估计制定一个贝叶斯统计框架 来自不同的数据源。使用这个框架，我们将产生一套原则性方法，用于 缺乏重要登记数据的情况。我们将强调Effi有效的实现 可供低收入和中等收入国家(LMIC)的研究人员使用，他们的计算能力可能有限 资源。在目标1中，我们将制定关于死亡率估计的一般统计框架的准则。目标2 将侧重于国家以下儿童死亡率，特别强调5岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)，即 人口健康的关键指标，以及新生儿死亡率(核磁共振)。超额死亡率估计 在新冠肺炎大流行期间，按月、在国家一级，将是目标3的主题。我们将传播 结果广泛，并提供所开发方法的软件和培训。 我们将在健康决策的地理层面上产生U5MR和核磁共振的年度估计 制造。为了实现这一目标，家庭调查、虚拟现实和人口普查数据必须以连贯的方式结合在一起。人口普查 有关儿童死亡率的数据通常提供简明的生育史(SBH)数据，其中包括母亲的年龄 有出生的孩子和死亡的人数，但没有这些事件发生的时间。 我们将开发一个框架来组合不同的数据源，这将需要处理设计 家庭调查中的问题，说明SBH数据中未知的出生和死亡时间，并估计 虚拟现实数据(出生和死亡)的完整性。我们还将通过表单合并人口统计信息 贝叶斯基准。有效和适当地使用模型将需要严格的模型评估， 对结果的仔细解释和有意义和信息量的图形摘要。 我们将开发稳健的模型来评估超额死亡率，即死亡与死亡之间的差异。 在大流行期间服役的人和如果大流行没有发生而预期的人。我们将对预期死亡人数进行建模， 并将这一努力中的不确定性纳入超额死亡率计算。死亡率的完备性 统计，即报告不足和报告延迟，也将被考虑。对于未提交报告的国家/地区 在大流行中的死亡人数，我们必须使用现有的国家一级协变量数据来预测死亡人数，我们 将采用fl可扩展但可解释的回归形式，并承认协变量数据中的不确定性。 我们将为这些方法制作用户友好的软件，以及小插曲和培训材料，包括 短期课程。终点是拥有可供LMIC研究人员使用的软件。所有的目标都将是 了解到合作小组与联合国儿童死亡率问题机构间小组的密切联系 估计(国家以下儿童死亡率目标)和世界卫生组织数据分析司 和交付换影响(超额死亡率目标)。我们将共同开发出突出差异的方法 并告知干预措施。

Project Summary: The goal of the proposal is to develop a Bayesian statistical framework for mortality estimation from disparate data sources. Using this framework we will produce a suite of principled methods to be used in those situations in which vital registration data are lacking. We will emphasize efficient implementations that can be used by researchers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), who may have limited computing resources. In Aim 1, we will develop guidelines on a general statistical framework for mortality estimation. Aim 2 will focus on subnational child mortality with particular emphasis on the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), which is a key indicator of the health of a population, and the neonatal mortality rate (NMR). Excess mortality estimation during the Covid-19 pandemic, by month, at the country level, will be the subject of Aim 3. We will disseminate results widely and provide software and training in the developed methods. We will produce yearly estimates of U5MR and NMR at the geographical level at which health decisions are made. To achieve this goal, household survey, VR and census data must be combined in a coherent way. Census data on child mortality typically provide summary birth history (SBH) data, which consist of mother's age along with the number of children born and the number who died, but without the times at which those events occurred. We will develop a framework for combining the different data sources, which will entail dealing with the design issues in the household survey, accounting for unknown birth and death times in the SBH data, and estimating the completeness of the VR data (births and deaths). We will also incorporate demographic information via a form of Bayesian benchmarking. Effective and appropriate use of the models will require rigorous model assessment, careful interpretation of results and meaningful and informative graphical summaries. We will develop robust models to evaluate the excess mortality, i.e., the difference between the deaths ob- served in the pandemic and those expected if the pandemic had not occurred. We will model the expected deaths, and incorporate the uncertainty in this endeavor in the excess mortality calculation. Completeness of mortality counts, that is, under-reporting and delays in reporting, will also be considered. For countries who do not report deaths in the pandemic, we must predict the mortality count using available country-level covariate data, and we will adopt flexible yet interpretable regression forms, and acknowledge uncertainty in the covariate data. We will produce user-friendly software for the methods, along with vignettes and training materials, including short courses. The endpoint is to have software that can be used by researchers in LMICs. All aims will be informed by the collaborative team's close links with the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (for the subnational child mortality aim) and the World Health Organization Division of Data, Analytics and Delivery for Impact (for the excess mortality aim). Together we will develop methods to highlight disparities and inform interventions.