Monitoring cause-specific school absences to estimate influenza transmission in W

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的三年期项目将提高我们对学校缺勤之间的联系的理解，由于流感样疾病和流感发病率在更广泛的社区学校缺勤。我们的提案扩展了本提案的共同研究者在过去5年中对匹兹堡地区学龄儿童流感进行的一系列现有项目。匹兹堡流感预防项目和学校的社会混合和呼吸道传播项目使我们能够微调匹兹堡地区缺勤和呼吸道疾病的监测系统。作为这两项研究的一部分，我们在3年多的时间里对6000多名儿童进行了缺席监测，并对呼吸道疾病的病毒病因进行了实验室调查。我们 建议在三个学区进行针对具体原因的缺课监测，包括宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡及其周边地区的11，000名学生。我们会进行多层次的监察，包括广泛针对性的网上调查、更密切的跟进和确定部分学校呼吸道感染的病毒病因，以及每年密切观察250名学童的定点队列。利用现有的时间序列和传染病时空模式研究方法，我们将开发新的流感发病率社区指标统计模型，使用特定原因的缺课数据和其他协变量。多年来，我们一直与阿勒格尼县卫生部和宾夕法尼亚州卫生部合作，研究县和州范围内的流感动态。这些伙伴关系使我们能够获得关于阿勒格尼县社区出现流感的分类数据。经验的交集进行以学校为基础的流感监测，开发新的统计工具，研究传染病的时空动态和长期的关系与当地公共卫生当局的位置，我们非常好，在这个项目中取得成功。Derek Cummings博士是该提案的主要研究者，每位合作研究者都有丰富的工作经验，并与他合作开展其他研究项目。Zimmer博士是一名传染病临床医生，曾对2009年流感大流行期间的社区传播和流感负担以及流感大流行期间的流感进行研究。Vukotich先生在阿勒格尼县卫生局（ACHD）担任助理副局长30年，在公共卫生项目管理方面拥有丰富的经验。我们的目标是制定协议，进行特定原因的缺课监测，可以运送到其他人群，开发社区和学校流感的时间进程的预测模型，并开发新的预测统计方法。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed three-year project will enhance our understanding of the link between school absences, school absences due to influenza like illness and influenza incidence in the wider community. Our proposal extends an existing set of projects that the co-Investigators of this proposal have conducted on influenza in school-children in the Pittsburgh area in the last 5 years. The Pittsburgh Influenza Prevention Project and the Social Mixing and Respiratory Transmission in Schools project have allowed us to fine tune surveillance systems for absenteeism and respiratory illness in the Pittsburgh area. We have conducted absentee surveillance and performed laboratory investigations of the viral etiology of respiratory illness in over 6000 children over 3 years as part of these two studies. We propose to conduct cause-specific school absence surveillance in three school districts including 11,000 students in and around Pittsburgh, PA. We will include multiple levels of surveillance including web-based surveys targeted broadly, closer follow-up and determination of viral etiology of respiratory infections in a subset of schools and close observation of a sentinel cohort of 250 school children each year. Drawing upon existing methodological work on time series and studies of spatial-temporal patterns of infectious disease, we will develop new statistical models of community metrics of influenza incidence using cause- specific school absence data and other covariates. We have been engaged in research and collaboration with the Allegheny County Health Department and the Pennsylvania Department of Health for several years in a study of influenza dynamics, county and state-wide. These partnerships have gained us access to disaggregate data on the appearance of influenza in the Allegheny county community. The intersection of experience conducting school-based influenza surveillance, developing novel statistical tools to study spatial-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases and long standing relationships with local public health authorities position us extremely well to succeed in this project. Dr. Derek Cummings is the Principal Investigator of this proposal, and each of the co-investigators has extensive experience working and collaborating with him on other research projects. Dr. Zimmer is an infectious disease clinician who has performed studies of the community transmission and burden of influenza in the 2009 pandemic and of influenza in interpandemic periods. Mr. Vukotich has extensive experience in public health project management stemming from 30 years of work at the Allegheny County Health Department (ACHD) as Assistant Deputy Director. We aim to develop protocols for conducting cause-specific school absence surveillance that can be transported to other populations, develop predictive models of the temporal course of influenza in communities and schools and develop novel statistical methods for prediction.