Human mobility models to forecast disease dynamics and the effectiveness of public health interventions

项目概要/摘要 人口流动是传染病传播的基础，决定着传染病的时空动态 暴发和地方病动态。然而，我们不知道如何最好地将个人或 人口流动模式转化为传染病模型。人类出行已成功纳入 纳入用于流感大流行的规划、监测和反应反应的模型中，COVID-19 流行病、疟疾等。然而，很少对这些模型中使用的方法进行验证或比较 已执行。此外，还没有对许多不同的影响程度进行系统的调查。 现有的人类出行数据来源量化了出行模式，或者对人类流动性的描述最 与疾病过程相关。全球范围内可用的少量人员流动数据需要 将一个数据集的特征概括或外推到另一设置、时间或环境。这个 概括可能适用于病原体子集或传播途径的病原体的某些特征，但是 在其他人身上可能会惨遭失败。所有旅行模式不太可能与所有类型的疾病相关。生活 每种病原体的历史、传播途径、发病年龄结构和爆发背景都将决定 特定运动类型的重要性。让流动数据有助于疫情爆发和监测 干预措施、利用流动性数据和模型的传播模型必须面对流行病学问题 来自各种来源的数据（包括接触者追踪、传统监测和遗传数据）。在这里，我们 建议对现有移动数据和模型进行首次系统分析，以确定哪些模型 使用一系列模拟和历史爆发数据在多种假设下表现最佳。我们会 还可以识别广义模型或非本地数据具有误导性的情况。为此，我们将整理 并对通过各种方法收集的大量移动数据集进行标准化。我们将统计 描述这些数据集的特征，以确定个人、家庭、 社区，以及更大的规模。我们将开发多个描述移动性的候选模型并结合 将这些候选模型纳入一系列常用的传染病传播模型中。论文集 原则是，只有当人类流动性提高了我们的能力时，它才对传染病模型有用。 概括观察到的疫情爆发的动态，我们将测试每个候选者的流动能力 用于解释在登革热暴发中观察到的接触模式和测序病原体的模型， 寨卡病毒、埃博拉病毒和 COVID-19。在此过程中，我们将确定可以改善人员流动性的条件 我们对传播和病原体的了解，为应对策略提供信息并创建资源 可以为应对当前和未来的多次疫情提供信息。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT Human mobility underlies infectious disease transmission and determines the spatial-temporal dynamics of outbreaks and endemic disease dynamics. Yet, we do not understand how best to incorporate individual or population mobility patterns into models of infectious diseases. Human travel has been successfully incorporated into models used for planning, surveillance, and reactive responses to influenza pandemics, the COVID-19 pandemic, malaria, and others. However, little validation or comparison of approaches used in these models has been performed. Further, there has been no systematic investigation of the extent to which the many different existing sources of human travel data quantify travel patterns, or which descriptions of human mobility are most relevant to disease processes. The small amount of human mobility data available globally requires generalization or extrapolation of features of one dataset to another setting, time or circumstance. This generalization may work for some features of pathogens for a subset of pathogens or transmission routes but may fail miserably in others. It is unlikely that all travel patterns are relevant for all types of diseases. The life history of each pathogen, transmission routes, age structure of incidence and outbreak context will all dictate the importance of specific types of movement. For mobility data to be useful in planning for outbreaks and monitoring interventions, transmission models utilizing mobility data and models must be confronted with epidemiological data (including contact tracing, traditional surveillance, and genetic data) from a variety of sources. Here, we propose to perform the first systematic analysis of existing mobility data and models to identify which models perform best under multiple assumptions using a range of simulations and data from historic outbreaks. We will also identify circumstances when generalized models or non-local data are misleading. To do this, we will collate and standardize a large number of mobility datasets collected by various methods. We will statistically characterize these datasets to identify sources of variation in human mobility at individual, household, community, and larger scales. We will develop multiple candidate models describing mobility and incorporate these candidate models into a range of commonly used models of infectious disease transmission. Proceeding with the principle that human mobility is only useful to models of infectious diseases if it improves our ability to recapitulate the dynamics of observed outbreaks, we will test the ability of each of these candidate mobility models to explain observed patterns of contacts and sequenced pathogens observed in outbreaks of dengue, Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19. In doing this, we will identify conditions under which human mobility can improve our understanding of the transmission and pathogens, inform response strategies and create a resource that can inform responses to multiple current and future outbreaks.