Improving the measurement of adolescent and adult mortality in low-income countries

改进低收入国家青少年和成人死亡率的测量

• 批准号: 10245892
• 负责人: Stephane Helleringer
• 金额: $ 47.01万
• 依托单位: NEW YORK UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-15 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10245892
• 关键词: 15 year old; AIDS/HIV problem; Adolescent; Adopted; Adult; Affect; Age; Bangladesh; Bayesian Method; Bayesian Modeling; Birth; Calendar; Cause of Death; Cessation of life; Child Mortality; Country; Cues; Data; Data Analyses; Data Collection; Data Set; Data Sources; Date of birth; Demographic and Health Surveys; Event; Fertility; Future; Goals; Government; Guinea-Bissau; Health; Household; Institution; International; Intervention; Interview; Investments; Malawi; Maternal Mortality; Measurement; Measures; Modeling; Pilot Projects; Population; Pregnancy; Questionnaires; Randomized; Recording of previous events; Reporting; Respondent; Risk; Sample Size; Sampling; Selection Bias; Sensitivity and Specificity; Series; Siblings; Site; Statistical Models; Suicide; Surveys; Sustainable Development; System; Techniques; Testing; Time; Traffic accidents; Uganda; Uncertainty; United Nations; Visit; Work; age group; arm; base; burden of illness; data modeling; data quality; effectiveness evaluation; flexibility; global health; improved; innovation; low and middle-income countries; low income country; mortality; operation; premature; prevent; primary outcome; programs; prospective; secondary outcome; simulation; tool; trend; validation studies

With child mortality rapidly declining, an increasing proportion of all deaths in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) will occur at adolescent and adult ages in the next decades. The forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out by the United Nations reflect this shift: over the next 15 years (2015-2030), several SDG targets will focus on reducing deaths from causes that affect primarily those age groups (e.g., maternal mortality, road traffic accidents, suicides). Investments in adolescent and adult health from US federal institutions, international organizations and governments of LMICs are thus expected to increase significantly. The mortality impact of such investments may however remain unknown because few LMICs have vital registration systems that allow measuring mortality precisely. Despite current efforts to improve such systems, household-based surveys (e.g., the Demographic and Health Surveys, DHS) will remain the primary data source on adolescent an adult mortality in LMICs. These surveys entail asking a random sample of respondents to report their siblings' survival history (SSH), i.e., whether each of their siblings 1) is alive, 2) how old s/he is, and 3) if deceased, how old s/he was at the time of death and the time since death. SSH permit directly estimating mortality rates at ages 15 and older, and also include basic assessments of the causes of siblings' deaths. They are however still affected by pervasive reporting errors. For example, respondents may omit some deaths, whereas other deaths may be added, or displaced in time. The net effects of these reporting errors on mortality indicators are large and hard to predict, but existing analytical corrections are based on very limited validation studies and do not capture this complexity. They risk accentuating bias and/or misrepresenting uncertainty in mortality estimates. In this project, we propose to improve the accuracy of survey-based estimates of adolescent and adult mortality through a) innovative data collection techniques (e.g., event history calendars, recall cues) and b) integrated Bayesian methods that account for sampling and non-sampling errors. Results from this study will help develop and target adolescent and adult health interventions in low and middle-income countries, and evaluate the effectiveness of global health initiatives.

随着儿童死亡率迅速下降，低收入和中等收入国家的儿童死亡率在所有死亡人数中所占比例越来越大， （LMIC）将在未来几十年发生在青少年和成年人年龄。未来的可持续 联合国制定的发展目标（SDG）反映了这一转变：在未来15年（2015-2030年）， 一些可持续发展目标将侧重于减少主要影响这些年龄组的原因造成的死亡（例如， 产妇死亡率、道路交通事故、自杀）。美国联邦政府对青少年和成人健康的投资 因此，预期低收入国家的机构、国际组织和政府将大量增加。 然而，这种投资对死亡率的影响可能仍然是未知的，因为很少有低收入国家具有重要的 登记系统可以精确测量死亡率。尽管目前努力改进这种系统， 以住户为基础的调查（例如，人口与健康调查（DHS）仍将是主要数据 低收入国家青少年和成年人死亡率。这些调查要求随机抽样， 受访者报告其兄弟姐妹的生存史（SSH），即，他们的兄弟姐妹1）是否还活着，2）如何 他/她的年龄，以及3）如果死亡，他/她在死亡时的年龄以及死亡后的时间。SSH许可证 直接估计15岁及以上的死亡率，并包括对死亡原因的基本评估。 兄弟姐妹的死亡然而，他们仍然受到普遍存在的报告错误的影响。例如，受访者可能 省略一些死亡，而其他死亡可能会被添加或及时转移。这些报告的净影响 死亡率指标的误差很大，很难预测，但现有的分析修正是基于非常 有限的验证研究，无法捕捉这种复杂性。他们有可能加重偏见和/或 歪曲死亡率估计的不确定性。在本项目中，我们建议提高 （a）通过创新的数据收集技术对青少年和成人死亡率进行基于调查的估计 (e.g.,事件历史日历、回忆线索）和B）考虑采样和 非抽样误差。这项研究的结果将有助于发展和针对青少年和成人的健康 在低收入和中等收入国家采取干预措施，并评估全球卫生倡议的有效性。

项目成果

Adult death registration in Matlab, rural Bangladesh: completeness, correlates, and obstacles.

• DOI: 10.1186/s41118-021-00125-7
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Genus
• 作者: Haider MM;Alam N;Ibn Bashar M;Helleringer S
• 通讯作者: Helleringer S

Comparing Approaches to Collecting Self-Reported Data on HIV Status in Population-Based Surveys.

比较基于人口的调查中收集自我报告的艾滋病毒状况数据的方法。

• DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002441
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)
• 作者: Brumfield,Sarah;Dube,Albert;Reniers,Georges;Helleringer,Stephane
• 通讯作者: Helleringer,Stephane

Commentary: Measuring excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: progress and persistent challenges.

• DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab260
• 发表时间: 2022-02-18
• 期刊: International journal of epidemiology
• 影响因子: 7.7
• 作者: Helleringer S;Queiroz BL
• 通讯作者: Queiroz BL

Errors in reported ages and dates in surveys of adult mortality: A record linkage study in Niakhar (Senegal).

• DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1854332
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: Population studies
• 作者: Masquelier B;Kanyangarara M;Pison G;Kanté AM;Ndiaye CT;Douillot L;Duthé G;Sokhna C;Delaunay V;Helleringer S
• 通讯作者: Helleringer S

Collecting mortality data via mobile phone surveys: A non-inferiority randomized trial in Malawi.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000852
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: PLOS global public health