New Survey Measures of Mortality at Older Ages in Low and Middle-Income Countries

低收入和中等收入国家老年人死亡率的新调查指标

• 批准号: 10328553
• 负责人: Stephane Helleringer
• 金额: $ 5.56万
• 依托单位: NEW YORK UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-01-15 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10328553
• 关键词: AIDS/HIV problem; Address; Adoption; Adult; Affect; Africa; Age; Age Specific Death Rate; Asia; Bangladesh; Behavioral; Biological; Cause of Death; Censuses; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Child; Child Mortality; Childhood; Collection; Country; Data; Data Reporting; Data Set; Death Rate; Death Records; Demographic and Health Surveys; Elderly; Evaluation; Family; Fertility; Funding; Future; Gender; Goals; Government; Guinea-Bissau; Hazard Models; Health; Heterogeneity; Household; Income; Individual; International; Intervention; Investments; Life Cycle Stages; Life Table Models; Link; Malawi; Measurement; Measures; Methods; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Outcome; Parents; Personal Satisfaction; Persons; Population; Population Group; Prevalence; Protocols documentation; Questionnaires; Recommendation; Recording of previous events; Registries; Reporting; Research; Research Personnel; Respondent; Sample Size; Sampling; Selection Bias; Senegal; Siblings; Site; Source; South Africa; Survey Methodology; Surveys; Sustainable Development; System; Testing; Time; Uganda; United Nations; Vital Statistics; Vital Status; Work; age group; analytical tool; base; data sharing; design; global health; health data; health goals; improved; large scale data; low and middle-income countries; mortality; mortality risk; multilevel analysis; online repository; prevent; programs; prospective; simulation; statistics; tool; young adult

PROJECT SUMMARY Following large declines in childhood mortality and progress in lowering mortality from causes of death that affect young adults, mortality is rapidly shifting to ages above 50 years old in low- and lower middle-income countries (LLMICs). Global health objectives now emphasize preventing deaths in those older age groups. US federal agencies, international organizations and governments of LLMICs are thus expected to increase their investments in interventions addressing non-communicable diseases and other behavioral factors that affect mortality risks above age 50 in LLMICs. Designing, targeting, and evaluating these interventions requires accurate estimates of death rates at older ages. However, the standard sources of mortality data (i.e., civil registration and vital statistics systems) are deficient in most LLMICs. We propose to test a survey method for the measurement of mortality above age 50 in LLMICs, the “parental survival history”. This method extends the approach used to generate survey data on mortality in younger age groups, by asking respondents to report the vital status of their biological parents, as well as their age (if alive) or age at death and time since death (if deceased). Its collection only requires minimal time (<2 minutes per survey respondent). It can thus readily be integrated into the questionnaires of large surveys conducted in LLMICs, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys. We examine the possibility of selection biases in parental survival histories, using long-term data on family ties and mortality from several health and demographic surveillance systems in Africa and Asia. Then, we measure the prevalence of reporting errors in parental survival histories, including misclassification of vital status, as well as age and date errors. Finally, we use micro-simulations to identify a) the settings in which parental survival histories might yield accurate estimates of mortality at older ages, and b) the sample sizes required for these estimates to be sufficiently precise. If accurate and collected on a large scale, data from parental survival histories will help better track progress towards new global health goals in LLMICs that pertain primarily to ages 50 and older.

项目概要 随着儿童死亡率大幅下降以及在降低死因死亡率方面取得进展， 影响年轻人，低收入和中低收入国家的死亡率正在迅速转向 50 岁以上年龄 国家（低收入和中等收入国家）。全球卫生目标现在强调预防老年群体的死亡。 因此，预计美国联邦机构、国际组织和低收入国家政府将增加 他们对解决非传染性疾病和其他行为因素的干预措施的投资 影响 LLMIC 中 50 岁以上的死亡风险。设计、瞄准和评估这些干预措施 需要准确估计老年人的死亡率。然而，死亡率数据的标准来源 （即民事登记和人口动态统计系统）在大多数低收入和低收入国家中都存在缺陷。我们建议测试一项调查 测量 LLMIC 中 50 岁以上死亡率的方法，即“父母生存史”。这 该方法扩展了用于生成较年轻年龄组死亡率调查数据的方法，通过询问 受访者报告其亲生父母的生命状况，以及他们的年龄（如果还活着）或死亡年龄 以及死亡后的时间（如果已故）。其收集只需要最短的时间（每次调查 <2 分钟） 受访者）。因此，它可以很容易地融入到低收入和中等收入国家进行的大型调查问卷中， 例如人口统计和健康调查。我们研究了父母选择偏差的可能性 生存历史，使用来自多个健康和人口统计的家庭关系和死亡率的长期数据 非洲和亚洲的监控系统。然后，我们测量了父母报告错误的发生率 生存历史，包括生命状态的错误分类，以及年龄和日期错误。最后，我们使用 微观模拟以确定 a) 父母生存历史可能产生准确的环境 b) 使这些估计值足够充分所需的样本量 精确的。如果准确并大规模收集，来自父母生存历史的数据将有助于更好地追踪 主要针对 50 岁及以上人群的低收入和中等收入国家在实现新的全球健康目标方面取得进展。