NBER Center for Aging and Health Research

其他项目信息-项目摘要/摘要 1918年至1920年流感大流行对新冠肺炎的启示 目前，人们非常担心新冠肺炎大流行对健康造成的后果。一个问题是如何 非药物公共卫生干预措施影响疾病的传播，从而影响死亡率。 第二个问题是不同社会经济状况的人在感染率和死亡率方面的不平等。 特点。这个项目的目标是从大流感大流行中吸取教训， 始于1918年春，在1918年末和1919年初的第二次浪潮中达到顶峰，持续到1920年，以及 全球累计造成4000万人死亡。使用跨城市和跨国家分析的组合， 该项目将研究大流感大流行的疾病结果如何与人口变化有关 NPI使用的人口统计和模式。该项目将评估疾病结果如何与类型和 跨地理位置及以上地区实施的非药物公共卫生干预措施的持续时间 时间到了。它将从类型上描述在大流感大流行期间采用的NPI， 使用强度和使用期限。需要考虑的NPI包括关闭学校、禁止公众 集会和隔离/隔离。该项目将分析感染、死亡、人口的变化 至少45个美国大城市，48个国家和地区，以及西班牙和英国的城市的人口统计数据和NPI使用情况。 可获得流感相关超额死亡率的高频数据的地方。该项目将作为一个 授予NBER老龄化和健康研究中心P30-AG012810的补充资金。

OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – Project Summary/Abstract Lessons for COVID-19 from the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 to 1920 There is currently great concern about the health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. One issue is how non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) impact the spread of the disease and, hence, fatality rates. A second is the inequality in infection rates and deaths across people with different socioeconomic characteristics. The goal of this project is to draw lessons for today from the Great Influenza Pandemic, which began in spring 1918, peaked during a second wave in late 1918 and early 1919, persisted through 1920, and cumulatively killed 40 million people worldwide. Using a combination of cross-city and cross-national analyses, the project will study how disease outcomes from the Great Influenza Pandemic relate to variations in population demographics and patterns of NPI use. The project will assess how disease outcomes relate to the types and durations of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions implemented across geographic locations and over time. It will characterize the NPIs that were adopted during the Great Influenza Pandemic in terms of type, intensity, and duration of application. Among the NPIs to be considered are school closings, prohibitions of public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. The project will analyze variations in infections, deaths, population demographics, and NPI use across at least 45 large US cities, 48 countries, and cities in Spain and England, where high-frequency data are available on flu-related excess mortality. The project will be conducted as a supplement to grant P30-AG012810, the NBER Center for Aging and Health Research.