Initial effects of program elimination on school enrollment and child health outcomes

取消计划对入学率和儿童健康结果的初步影响

• 批准号: 10624220
• 负责人: Susan W Parker
• 金额: $ 22.46万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-18 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10624220
• 关键词: Age; Age Months; Appointment; Birth Weight; Brazil; Child; Child Health; Child Labor; Clinic; Clinic Visits; Communicable Diseases; Consultations; Data; Developing Countries; Development; Dropout; Economic Development; Economics; Education; Emigrations; Employment; Enrollment; Evaluation; Family; Follow-Up Studies; Gender; Generations; Goals; Health; Health Care Visit; Heterogeneity; Hospitalization; Hospitalized Child; Hour; Household; Income; Infant Mortality; Length; Link; Literature; Low income; Mexican; Mexico; Municipalities; Names; Natural experiment; Neonatal Mortality; Occupations; Outcome; Population; Poverty; Pregnancy; Preventive; Primary Schools; Randomized; Research; Research Project Grants; Respiratory Disease; Risk; Running; School Enrollments; School-Age Population; Schools; Secondary Schools; Surveys; Visit; Youth; beneficiary; boys; design; economic outcome; falls; girls; improved; infant outcome; insight; labor force participation; mortality; programs; research study; scale up; school health; success

PROJECT SUMMARY We study the effects of the recent and sudden rollback of the Mexican conditional cash transfer Prospera on school enrollment and child health outcomes. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs link monetary transfers to poor households to children’s education and health and were first pioneered in Mexico and Brazil two decades ago, now operating in more than 60 mostly developing countries (ibarraran et al. 2017). Prospera’s (previously named Progresa/Oportunidades) initial randomized evaluation and follow up studies demonstrated significant and important improvements on children’s education and health outcomes, as well as in household economic outcomes, summarized in (Parker and Todd, 2017). These studies contributed to both a scale up within Mexico and the spread of its key features to new programs around the world. The sudden rollback of Prospera in early 2019 by President Lopez Obrador provides a unique natural experiment to study whether the positive effects on children of this pioneering and emulated around the world program will be sustained after this sudden change in their households’ economic situations. This project will provide evidence on the initial effects of the program elimination on school enrollment and child health outcomes including infant mortality, consultations, and hospitalizations. Aim 1 studies the impact of the rollback on school enrollment of children and youth between the ages of 6 and 18 in the year following rollback. Aim 2 estimates the impacts of the rollback on infant mortality and on health consultations and hospitalizations in the year following rollback. The study will provide evidence on the initial effects of eliminating an income transfer program to the population in extreme poverty in a developing country. It will provide some of the first evidence on the sustainability of child education and health gains when a conditional cash transfer program ends, and contribute to the new and critical literature on whether program impacts persist after income transfers ends.

项目摘要 我们研究了墨西哥有条件现金转移最近突然回滚的影响 Prospera对入学率和儿童健康结果的影响。有条件现金转移（CCT） 项目将向贫困家庭提供的资金转移与儿童教育和健康挂钩， 20年前在墨西哥和巴西率先推出，现在在60多个国家运营， 主要是发展中国家（ibararan et al. 2017）。普洛斯佩拉餐厅（原名 Progresa/Occupidades）的初始随机评价和随访研究表明， 在儿童教育和健康成果方面取得重大和重要的改善， 家庭经济成果，总结于（帕克和托德，2017年）。这些研究 有助于在墨西哥扩大规模，并将其关键特征传播到新项目中 世界各地洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔总统在2019年初突然撤销普洛斯佩拉 提供了一个独特的自然实验，以研究是否对儿童的积极影响， 在这一突然的变化之后， 家庭的经济状况。该项目将提供证据的初步效果 消除方案对入学率和儿童健康结果的影响， 死亡率、咨询和住院。目标1研究回滚对学校的影响 回滚后一年6至18岁儿童和青年的入学率。 目标2估计回滚对婴儿死亡率和保健咨询的影响， 回滚后一年的住院率。这项研究将提供证据，初步 消除对赤贫人口的收入转移方案的影响， 发展中国家。它将提供一些关于儿童可持续性的初步证据， 当有条件现金转移支付计划结束时，教育和健康收益，并有助于 关于收入转移结束后计划影响是否持续的新的和批判性的文献。