The Divorce Decline and Relationship Stability: 1970-2019

离婚率下降和关系稳定性：1970-2019

• 批准号: 10741358
• 负责人: Christine R. Schwartz
• 金额: $ 15.55万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-18 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10741358
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Age; Area; Child; Child Welfare; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Divorce; Education; Elderly; Ethnic Origin; Event History Analysis; Family; Family Demographies; Goals; Growth; Health; Health and Retirement Study; Income; Individual; Inequality; Knowledge; Life; Living Arrangement; Marital separation; Marriage; Marriage Ages; Measurement; Morphologic artifacts; Needs Assessment; Older Population; Parenthood Status; Parents; Pattern; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Population Distributions; Psyche structure; Race; Reporting; Research; Series; Source; Standardization; Subgroup; Surveys; Time; Time trend; Uncertainty; United States; Update; Vital Statistics; Woman; aged; cohort; college; data quality; falls; interest; multiple data sources; optimism; population health; population survey; programs; public health relevance; sex; socioeconomics; trend; trend analysis; welfare

Title: The Divorce Decline and Relationship Stability: 1970-2019 ABSTRACT/PROJECT SUMMARY To assess fundamental questions such as “what is happening to the family?” in the United States, we need to understand basic trends in family patterns. An area in which there are gaps in our knowledge—but is of deep importance to individuals and the public—is trends in divorce and relationship stability. Issues of data quality, the rise of cohabitation and the increasing selectivity of marriage, changes in population composition, and diverging patterns by education and race/ethnicity complicate analyses of trends. The primary goal of this research is to determine the extent to which the observed decline of divorce in the U.S. since the late 1970s should be interpreted as evidence of increased coresidential relationship stability. To address this question, we combine two data sets that contain information on marriage and cohabitation entry and dissolution that together avoid many of the pitfalls of prior data sources; estimate the extent to which changes in selection into marriage and population composition explain trends; incorporate the often overlooked older- population who now constitute important contributors to dissolution rates; and examine differentials by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status. Given that even recent research on divorce and marital dissolution finds, on average, negative associations with adult and child well-being (e.g., Kim, 2011; Leopold, 2018), should the decline in divorce rates since the late 1970s be interpreted as a cause for optimism about the stability of committed romantic relationships in the U.S.? There are several reasons to doubt this interpretation. First, recent research has raised the possibility that the divorce decline is an artifact of data problems and changes in population composition (Kennedy & Ruggles, 2014) rather than a true increase in relationship stability. Second, the divorce rate does not capture other kinds of relationship dissolution such as marital separation and cohabitation breakup. Thus, an examination of divorce rates alone underestimates the dissolution of coresidential unions. Third, there are sizeable differences in marital dissolution by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status. Marital dissolution has only declined for women with a college degree and not for those with less education (Martin, 2006), and trends also differ by race/ethnicity (Raley et al., 2015). But combined union dissolution trends for coresidential unions by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status have not been estimated to our knowledge. Our research addresses each of these issues. The results will allow us to assess whether the decline in divorce observed in past studies can be interpreted as evidence of a decline in relationship instability, and if so, the extent to which this is shared across key population subgroups in the U.S.

离婚下降和关系稳定性：1970-2019 摘要/项目总结 评估一些基本问题，如“家庭发生了什么？”在美国，我们需要 了解家庭模式的基本趋势。在这个领域，我们的知识存在差距，但它是深刻的。 对个人和公众的重要性是离婚和关系稳定的趋势。数据质量问题， 同居的增加和婚姻选择性的增加，人口构成的变化， 教育和种族/族裔的不同模式使趋势分析复杂化。其主要目标是 研究是为了确定自20世纪90年代末以来，美国离婚率下降的程度。 20世纪70年代应该被解释为同居关系稳定性增加的证据。解决 这个问题，我们结合联合收割机两个数据集，其中包含婚姻和同居入境信息， 消除，共同避免了许多陷阱，以前的数据来源;估计的程度， 在婚姻和人口组成的选择解释趋势;纳入往往被忽视的老年人- 人口谁现在构成的重要贡献者溶解率;并检查差异， 教育、种族/民族和父母身份。 即使是最近关于离婚和婚姻解体的研究也发现，平均而言， 与成人和儿童的福祉（例如，Kim，2011年; Leopold，2018年），自2011年以来离婚率的下降应该是 20世纪70年代末的这一现象被解释为对美国承诺的浪漫关系的稳定性持乐观态度的原因。 美国？有几个理由怀疑这种解释。首先，最近的研究表明， 离婚率的下降是数据问题和人口构成变化的产物（肯尼迪和 Ruggles，2014）而不是关系稳定性的真正增加。其次，离婚率并没有反映出 其他形式的关系解除，如婚姻分居和同居破裂。因此， 仅对离婚率的研究低估了同居关系的解体。三是 在婚姻解体方面，受教育程度、种族/民族和父母身份存在相当大的差异。婚姻 只有拥有大学学位的女性的离婚率有所下降，而那些受教育程度较低的女性的离婚率则没有下降（Martin， 2006），并且趋势也因种族/民族而异（Raley等人，2015年）。但结合工会解散的趋势， 根据教育、种族/民族和父母身份，我们还没有估计出同居婚姻的情况。 知识 我们的研究解决了所有这些问题。结果将使我们能够评估是否下降 在过去的研究中观察到的离婚可以解释为关系不稳定性下降的证据，如果是这样， 在美国，这在多大程度上是在关键的人口亚群之间共享的。