The Impact of Climate and Climate Change on West Nile Virus Transmission

气候和气候变化对西尼罗河病毒传播的影响

• 批准号: 7950210
• 负责人: Auston Marmaduke Kilpatrick
• 金额: $ 51.49万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SANTA CRUZ
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-15 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7950210
• 关键词: Accounting; Acute; Address; African; Air Pollution; Biological Models; Birds; Bite; California; Canada; Caribbean region; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Climate; Colorado; Communicable Diseases; Competence; Conflict (Psychology); County; Culicidae; Data; Development; Dimensions; Disease; Ecology; Encephalitis; Equilibrium; Event; Feeding Patterns; Figs - dietary; Florida; Frequencies; Future; Global Warming; Goals; Head; Health; Heat Stress Disorders; Human; Incidence; Infection; Infectious Agent; Intervention; Iowa; Laboratories; Laboratory Study; Length; Link; Longevity; Malaria; Meningitis; Mexico; Modeling; New York; North America; Paralysed; Pattern; Persons; Population; Positioning Attribute; Precipitation; Prevalence; Process; Public Health; Relative (related person); Reporting; Research; Risk; Sea; Seasons; Seroprevalences; Severity of illness; Shamanism; Site; South America; Spatial Distribution; Surface; Symptoms; Temperature; Testing; Time; Vaccines; Vector-transmitted infectious disease; Virus; Virus Diseases; Water; Weather; West Nile virus; Work; Yin; anthropogenesis; base; climate change; enzootic; foodborne; greenhouse gases; insight; land use; pathogen; public health relevance; scale up; transmission process; vector; vector mosquito; vector transmission; working group

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The long range goal of the proposed work is to understand the fundamental relationships between climate and vector-borne pathogen transmission. We will use more than a decade of research and data at multiple scales on the transmission ecology of West Nile virus (WNV) to determine mechanistic relationships of climate on mosquito populations and WNV transmission and the potential impacts of climate change. The proposed work addresses three specific aims: SA1) Determine the broad scale spatio-temporal correlations between rainfall and temperature and West Nile virus incidence in humans, mosquitoes, and birds, while controlling for land use. Use these patterns to generate mechanistic hypotheses about local scale processes generating these correlations. We will use more than a decade of WNV incidence in birds, mosquitoes, and humans to determine the influence of temperature and rainfall on the length of WNV transmission season, the spatial distribution of WNV, and the intensity of WNV transmission. SA2) Test mechanistic hypotheses about climate-transmission links with laboratory studies and local scale data on temperature, rainfall, host abundance and WNV seroprevalence, and mosquito abundance, feeding patterns, and WNV infection prevalence. We will perform laboratory studies to determine the influence of temperature on four critical factors in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens: vector competence, developmental rate, longevity, and biting rate of the three dominant WNV mosquito species. We will use local studies of WNV transmission at 182 sites in 6 regions spanning the east-west and north-south dimensions of the USA to determine the influence of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the intensity of WNV transmission relative to other factors. SA3) Use hypotheses supported from SA2 to predict the impacts of climate change on future WNV transmission. We will develop fine scale future climate projections and use the insights gained from aims 1&2 to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of WNV in North America, the length of the WNV transmission season, and the intensity of transmission across the USA. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Climate change presents important risks for human health, including, vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne disease, heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events. The impact of climate on vector-borne disease is one of the more difficult issues to address, because increasing temperature and changes in rainfall can have both positive and negative impacts on pathogen transmission, making simple directional predictions tenuous. As a result, determining the impact of climate change on vector-borne disease requires a multi-scale approach where the mechanisms of climate impacts on local scale transmission can determined, followed by a scaling up of these mechanisms to a scale that is relevant for public health. Current and previous work on West Nile virus presents an opportunity to attack the problem head-on with this multi- scale approach, which will facilitate public health intervention for this, and other vector-borne diseases.

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议工作的长期目标是了解气候与媒介传播病原体之间的基本关系。我们将利用十多年来在多个尺度上对西尼罗病毒传播生态学的研究和数据来确定气候对蚊子种群和西尼罗病毒传播的机制关系以及气候变化的潜在影响。提出的工作有三个具体目标：SA1)确定降雨和温度与人类、蚊子和鸟类中西尼罗河病毒发病率之间的大尺度时空相关性，同时控制土地利用。使用这些模式生成关于产生这些相关性的局部尺度过程的机制假设。我们将利用十多年来西尼罗河病毒在鸟类、蚊子和人类中的发病率来确定温度和降雨对西尼罗河病毒传播季节长度、西尼罗河病毒的空间分布和西尼罗河病毒传播强度的影响。SA2)通过实验室研究和当地温度、降雨量、宿主丰度和西尼罗河病毒血清流行率、蚊子丰度、喂养模式和西尼罗河病毒感染流行率等数据，检验有关气候传播联系的机制假设。我们将进行实验室研究，以确定温度对媒介传播病原体传播的四个关键因素的影响：媒介能力、发育率、寿命和三种主要西尼罗河病毒蚊子的叮咬率。我们将在美国东西向和南北向6个地区的182个地点进行西尼罗河病毒传播的当地研究，以确定相对于其他因素，降雨量和温度对蚊子数量和西尼罗河病毒传播强度的影响。利用SA2支持的假设预测气候变化对未来西尼罗河病毒传播的影响。我们将开发精细尺度的未来气候预测，并利用从目标1和2中获得的见解来预测气候变化对北美西尼罗河病毒分布的影响，西尼罗河病毒传播季节的长度以及整个美国的传播强度。