Linking infectious disease dynamics to seasonal animal movements

描述（由申请人提供）：越来越多的科学意识到，了解动物与病原体相互作用的种群生物学对于预测新发传染病对人类健康的风险非常重要。本应用程序旨在开发一个模型昆虫-病原体系统，以研究季节性动物迁徙以及宿主行为、繁殖和免疫的相关变化如何影响病原体的传播。许多动物物种经历季节性运动，以跟踪气候或资源的变化；这些动作通常需要消耗大量的能量，并伴随着重大的生理变化。迁徙动物也可能携带已知有人类健康风险的传染病——然而，人们对远距离迁徙对宿主-病原体相互作用的一般后果知之甚少。我将首先通过实地研究来解决这个问题，通过评估宿主繁殖密度和在给定栖息地停留的时间如何影响寄生虫在宿主环境中的传播和积累。为了研究感染成本如何影响宿主的迁徙成功，我将结合实地数据分析和稳定同位素标记，以推断沿迁徙路线和越冬地点捕获的宿主的出生来源。实验工作将测试迁移前的生理变化如何影响宿主的免疫力和对感染的耐受性。最后，我将开发数学模型来探索宿主迁移距离和运动如何影响传染病动力学。模型将研究动物迁移策略如何影响宿主-寄生虫动力学，以及感染率如何影响宿主迁移的相对成本和收益，并将其应用于广泛的动物-病原体系统。宿主运动行为的时空信息是预测传染病在迁徙动物中的传播所必需的，迁徙动物是人类传染病的天然宿主。许多人类新发传染病是由于暴露于迁徙动物携带的人畜共患病原体造成的，如禽流感病毒、西尼罗河病毒、莱姆病和sars样冠状病毒：因此，了解病原体的运动对于评估时空发病率模式至关重要。因此，了解动物迁徙影响寄生虫传播和宿主免疫的过程对于预测迁徙的丧失将如何影响传染病动力学至关重要。利用高度可处理的昆虫-病原体模型系统，我的工作将阐明可能对预测宿主种群与新发传染病之间复杂关系的未来变化重要的机制。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): There is growing scientific awareness that understanding the population biology of animal-pathogen interactions is very relevant for predicting human health risks from emerging infectious diseases. This application aims to develop a model insect-pathogen system to examine how seasonal animal migrations, and associated changes in host behavior, reproduction and immunity, affect pathogen spread. Many animal species undergo seasonal movements to track changes in climate or resources; these movements often have significant energetic costs and are accompanied by major physiological changes. Migratory animals can also harbor infectious diseases with known human health risks - yet little is known about the general consequences of long-distance migrations for host-pathogen interactions. I will approach this issue first empirically through field studies by evaluating how host breeding densities and duration of time spent in a given habitat affect parasite transmission and accumulation in the hosts' environment. To examine how the costs of infection impact host migratory success, I will incorporate field data analysis with stable isotope markers to infer the natal origins of hosts captured along migratory routes and at their wintering sites. Experimental work will test how physiological changes that precede migration influence host immunity and tolerance to infection. Lastly, I will develop mathematical models to explore how host migration distances and movements influence infectious disease dynamics. Models will examine how animal migratory strategies affect host-parasite dynamics, and how infection rates influence the relative costs and benefits of host migration, with applications to a broad range of animal-pathogen systems. Spatio-temporal information on host movement behaviors is necessary to predict the spread of infectious diseases in migratory animals acting as natural reservoirs of human infectious diseases. Many human emerging infectious diseases result from exposure to zoonotic pathogens harbored by migratory animals, such as avian influenza virus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease, and SARS-like coronaviruses: hence, knowledge of pathogen movement is crucial to assess spatiotemporal incidence patterns. Understanding processes by which animal migration affects parasite transmission and host immunity are therefore crucial for predicting how loss of migrations will influence infectious disease dynamics. Using a highly tractable insect-pathogen model system, my work will shed light on mechanisms that may be important for predicting future changes in the complex relationships between host populations and emerging infectious diseases.