Age-period-cohort effects on substance use in adolescence, 1976-2006

年龄-时期-队列对青春期物质使用的影响，1976-2006 年

• 批准号: 7668127
• 负责人: KATHERINE MARGARET KEYES
• 金额: $ 2.53万
• 依托单位: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-07-01 至 2010-05-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7668127
• 关键词: Adolescence; Adolescent; Age; Alcohol or Other Drugs use; Alcohols; Attitude; Birth; Cigarette; Cohort Analysis; Cohort Effect; Cross-Sectional Studies; Data; Data Analyses; Data Collection; Development; Disease; Drug usage; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologic Studies; Foundations; Future; Goals; Graph; Health; Health Policy; Heterogeneity; Incidence; Individual; Laws; Life Cycle Stages; Link; Marijuana; Marijuana Dependence; Marijuana Smoking; Measures; Methods; Modeling; Monitor; Nicotine; Outcome; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policies; Polishes; Population; Prevalence; Prevention program; Preventive Intervention; Primary Prevention; Public Health; Reporting; Research; Risk; Risk Factors; Role; Sampling; Societal Factors; Standardization; Statistical Models; Structure; Testing; Time; Time Study; Tobacco; Tobacco use; Variant; Visual; Work; adolescent alcohol; alcohol risk; alcohol use initiation; cohort; design; effective intervention; genetic variant; insight; interest; peer; public health relevance; social; tool; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The identification of age-period-cohort effects in alcohol and drug outcomes provides substantially more information regarding how alcohol and drug use change over time compared to the traditional population rate by year. Further, information on attitudes toward substance use such as disapproval can be analyzed in the age-period-cohort framework to provide information about group-level mechanisms of risk through which lifetime initiation of substance use changes. Unfortunately, age-period-cohort analysis remains an underutilized methodological tool due to the limitations of pre-existing methods to reliably estimate effects. Recently, however, new methodological tools have been developed focusing on aspects of the APC model unaffected by model identification problems, motivating a multi-disciplinary resurgence of interest in APC analysis. The overarching aim of the present research is to apply recent methodological advancements in statistical age-period-cohort effect estimation to quantify the combination of age, period, and cohort effects that give rise to changes in alcohol and drug use as well as disapproval of use in adolescence over time. This research will integrate age-period-cohort effects in substance use with age-period-cohort effects in attitudes toward use to assess heterogeneity in these two related but potentially diverse constructs. Data will be drawn from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, a nationally-representative yearly cross-sectional survey of adolescents in the U.S. from 1976 to the present. A unique feature of the MTF data is the standardization of sampling design and measures across 30 years of data collection. This work will focus specifically on estimating age-period-cohort effects in the lifetime initiation of three substances (alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana) and also on estimating age-period-cohort effects in disapproval of alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The present research has implications for public health policy and continued research. Information regarding the similarities and differences between age-period-cohort effects in substance use and disapproval can provide a foundation for productive hypothesis testing. Results of the present study will suggest population- level targets for prevention and intervention with adolescents, as the presence of age, period, and/or cohort effects can provide an initial characterization of effective interventions in populations.

描述（由申请人提供）：与按年计算的传统人口比率相比，识别酒精和药物结局的年龄-时期-队列效应提供了更多关于酒精和药物使用如何随时间变化的信息。此外，对物质使用的态度，如不赞成的信息，可以在年龄段队列框架进行分析，以提供信息组水平的风险机制，通过终身开始的物质使用的变化。不幸的是，年龄-时期-队列分析仍然是一个未充分利用的方法学工具，由于现有方法的局限性，可靠地估计效果。然而，最近，新的方法工具已经开发出集中在APC模型不受模型识别问题的方面，激励多学科的兴趣在APC分析复苏。本研究的总体目标是应用统计年龄-时期-队列效应估计的最新方法学进展来量化年龄、时期和队列效应的组合，这些效应导致酒精和药物使用的变化，以及随着时间的推移不赞成在青春期使用。本研究将整合年龄-时期-队列效应在物质使用与年龄-时期-队列效应对使用的态度，以评估异质性，在这两个相关的，但可能不同的结构。数据将来自监测未来（MTF）研究，这是一项从1976年至今对美国青少年进行的全国代表性年度横断面调查。MTF数据的一个独特之处是在30年的数据收集过程中对抽样设计和措施进行了标准化。这项工作将特别侧重于估计年龄段队列的影响，在一生中开始的三种物质（酒精，烟草和大麻），并估计年龄段队列的影响，不赞成酒精，烟草和大麻。公共卫生相关性：目前的研究对公共卫生政策和继续研究有影响。关于物质使用和反对的年龄-时期-队列效应之间的相似性和差异的信息可以为生产性假设检验提供基础。本研究的结果将建议青少年预防和干预的人群水平目标，因为年龄、时期和/或队列效应的存在可以提供人群有效干预的初步特征。