Optimising cervical screening after the introduction of HPV vaccination in Australia: Modelling of outcomes

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This research project will aid decision-making about how best to perform cervical screening in Australia after the introduction of vaccination against the human papillomavirus (or HPV). The project will use computer simulation techniques to explore different scenarios for vaccination and screening and to determine the optimal approach. This project involves a group of international collaborators with expertise in a number of areas including cancer epidemiology, screening for cancer, and computer simulation methods. HPV is the virus responsible for the development of cervical cancer, and clinical trials have demonstrated that HPV vaccines administered to adoloescent girls are very effective at preventing disease that might have led to cancer in the future. However, Australia currently has a very effective Pap smear screening program, and in the first phase after the introduction of vaccination it will be important for women to continue being screened as usual. In the long term, HPV vaccination is expected to reduce the need for Pap smears. The research will involve a very detailed simulation of how HPV is transmitted in the Australian population, and how this will change after vaccination. The simulation will address questions of importance for any future public HPV vaccination program, such as whether males should be vaccinated as well as females. The simulation will also be used to determine the optimal starting age and frequency of Pap smears in the future. The outcomes of the research will be very important for policy-makers. In the long term, this research will ensure that the best recommendations are formulated for the timing and frequency of Pap smears after HPV vaccination is introduced.