Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of Mycobacterial Disease Control

分枝杆菌疾病控制的数学和统计模型

• 批准号: 8093939
• 负责人: Rebecca Lee Smith
• 金额: $ 7.43万
• 依托单位: CORNELL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2016-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8093939
• 关键词: Animals; Area; Biological; Cattle; Clinical; Computational Biology; Diagnostic; Disease; Disease model; Doctor of Philosophy; Economics; Enrollment; Epidemiologist; Health; Human; Immunology; Infection; Leprosy; Link; Markov Chains; Medicine; Mentored Research Scientist Development Award; Mentors; Methods; Microbiology; Modeling; Mycobacterium avium; Mycobacterium tuberculosis; Output; Paratuberculosis; Population; Postdoctoral Fellow; Protocols documentation; Public Health; Research; Research Personnel; Science; Statistical Models; Techniques; Time; Tuberculosis; Universities; Use of New Techniques; Vaccines; Veterinary Medicine; Visit; Work; base; college; design; disease transmission; disorder control; field study; graduate student; improved; mathematical model; mycobacterial; pathogen; post-doctoral training; professor; programs; statistics

DESCRIPTION (provided by Candidate): CANDIDATE: Dr. Rebecca Smith DVM MS, a veterinary epidemiologist, is currently enrolled in a Ph.D. program in the field of Clinical Biomedical Sciences at Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine. Her work has been recognized to be unique and ground-breaking in linking disease modeling, statistics, and veterinary medicine. ENVIRONMENT: Dr. Smith's mentor, Dr. Yrjo Grohn is a highly respected veterinary epidemiologist, chair of Cornell University's Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences. Dr. Grohn has expertise in disease modeling and statistical analysis of disease, and has mentored many graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and visiting scholars in these fields. Dr. Smith will also be working with and mentored by a multi- disciplinary executive committee, including Dr. Robert Strawderman (Professor of Biological Statistics and Computational Biology), Dr. Loren Tauer (Chair of the Department of Applied Economics and Management), and Dr. David Russell (Chair of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology). TRAINING PLAN: The K01 award will support Dr. Smith's post-doctoral training and subsequent work as a Research Assistant. During this time, she will develop new mathematical and statistical models for mycobacterial diseases and transition into independence as a researcher. PROPOSAL: Dr. Smith will apply techniques developed for mathematical and statistical models of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis to three other mycobacterial diseases. A model for M. bovis spread within herds will be designed and analyzed to inform US eradication protocol. An existing model for M. tuberculosis will be used to economically and socially optimize control strategies, and will be used as the basis for a reverse jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (rjMCMC) model that will be able to estimate vaccine and control program efficacy from field trials. A model will be designed and analyzed for M. leprae infection and parameterized using rjMCMC techniques; the finished model will be used to optimize control strategies. These models will reveal new areas of possible research at the intersection between human and animal health. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE (provided by Candidate): This study will develop methods to determine the efficacy of mycobacterial disease control programs, focusing on tuberculosis in humans and cattle and on leprosy in humans. Optimal control methods will be determined using the new techniques developed, improving public health strategies for these globally important diseases.

描述(由候选人提供)：候选人：Rebecca Smith DVM MS博士，兽医流行病学家，目前在康奈尔大学兽医学院临床生物医学领域攻读博士学位。她的工作被公认为是将疾病建模、统计学和兽医学联系起来的独特和开创性的工作。 环境：史密斯博士的导师，Yrjo Grohn博士是一位备受尊敬的兽医流行病学家，康奈尔大学人口医学和诊断科学系主任。格罗恩博士在疾病建模和疾病统计分析方面拥有专业知识，并在这些领域指导了许多研究生、博士后研究员和访问学者。史密斯博士还将与一个多学科执行委员会合作并在其指导下工作，其中包括罗伯特·斯特劳德曼博士(生物统计和计算生物学教授)、洛伦·陶尔博士(应用经济和管理系主任)和大卫·拉塞尔博士(微生物学和免疫学系主任)。 培训计划：K01奖将支持史密斯博士的博士后培训和随后的研究助理工作。在此期间，她将为分枝杆菌疾病开发新的数学和统计模型，并过渡到作为一名研究人员的独立。 建议：史密斯博士将应用为鸟分枝杆菌亚种的数学和统计模型开发的技术。副结核与其他三种分枝杆菌疾病有关。将设计和分析牛分枝杆菌在牛群中传播的模型，以告知美国根除方案。现有的结核分枝杆菌模型将被用于经济和社会优化控制策略，并将被用作反向跳跃马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(RjMCMC)模型的基础，该模型将能够从现场试验中估计疫苗和控制程序的效果。将设计和分析麻风杆菌感染的模型，并使用rjMCMC技术进行参数化；完成的模型将用于优化控制策略。这些模型将揭示在人类和动物健康的交叉点上可能研究的新领域。 公共卫生相关性(由Candiate提供)：这项研究将开发确定分枝杆菌疾病控制计划有效性的方法，重点是人和牛的结核病和人类的麻风病。将利用开发的新技术确定最佳控制方法，改进这些全球重要疾病的公共卫生战略。

项目成果

Development of a model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States.

开发模型来模拟美国牛群中牛分枝杆菌的感染动态。

• DOI: 10.2460/javma.243.3.411
• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association
• 作者: Smith,RebeccaL;Schukken,YnteH;Lu,Zhao;Mitchell,RebeccaM;Grohn,YrjoT
• 通讯作者: Grohn,YrjoT