The Financial Crisis: Economic and Health Effects

描述（由申请人提供）：美国和大多数发达国家正在经历自大萧条以来最严重的经济危机。家庭在许多方面受到影响。房屋价值的大幅下跌，加上假设高风险抵押贷款和股权提取，导致相当一部分房主的房屋净值为负，一些人丧失了抵押品赎回权。股票价值的大幅下跌使许多家庭的储蓄大幅减少，特别是影响到退休储蓄。创纪录的失业率危及越来越多的工人及其家庭的经济基础。该项目的一个主要目标是量化金融危机对美国家庭财富状况的影响，以及家庭行为的任何调整。为了尽可能完整地描绘一幅画面，这些分析将采用多个纵向数据源（HRS、PSID、美国生活小组和艾尔莎），这些数据源在所涵盖的年龄范围、样本量、访谈的频率和时间以及可用信息的丰富程度方面各不相同。在面板数据中，我们将估计家庭对其财富状况变化的反应，特别是在消费和储蓄，退休和遗赠方面。因此，我们将发现家庭如何为财富损失提供资金。 跨期决策的一个重要因素是个人对未来的预期。最近金融市场的长期动荡使人们很难形成这种预期。该项目将记录和估计主观不确定性和对家庭财务状况的乐观态度的变化，并将其与个人的经济选择联系起来。 这项研究的另一个主要目标是调查经济危机是否与健康状况的下降有关。过去的研究表明，健康和经济状况之间存在密切关系，财富的这些意外变化为分离这种关系的一些解释提供了机会。除了自我报告的健康信息外，我们还将利用HRS和艾尔莎中可用的生物标志物。因此，这项研究将把健康的变化与财富的变化以及对失业和其他压力的预期联系起来。这些分析中的大多数将在英国老龄化纵向研究的数据上重复，利用危机的不同演变和艾尔莎中更丰富的健康信息。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The United States and most of the developed world is experiencing its greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Households have been affected in a number of ways. Large declines in house values combined with the assumption of risky mortgages and equity extraction has led to negative housing equity for a significant fraction of home owners and foreclosures for some. Large declines in stock values have decimated the savings of many households, especially affecting retirement savings. Record rates of job loss jeopardize the economic foundations of a large and growing fraction of workers and their families. One major objective of this proposed project will be to quantify the effects of the financial crisis on the wealth positions of U.S. households and any adjustments in behavior households made in response. To paint as complete a picture as possible these analyses will employ multiple longitudinal data sources (HRS, PSID, American Life Panel, and ELSA) that vary in the covered age range, sample size, the frequency and timing of interviews as well as the richness of available information. In panel data we will estimate the responses by households to changes in their wealth positions, in particular in consumption and saving, retirement and bequests. Thus we will find how households financed the wealth losses. An important element to intertemporal decision making is what individuals expect about the future. The recent extended turmoil in the financial markets makes it difficult to form such expectations. This project will document and estimate changes in subjective uncertainty and optimism about the financial situation of households and relate them to individuals' economic choices. Another major objective of this research is to investigate whether the economic crisis is associated with declines in health. Past research has shown a close relationship between health and economic status and these unexpected changes in wealth provide an opportunity to separate some of the explanations for this relationship. In addition to self-reported health information we will take advantage of available biomarkers in the HRS and ELSA. Thus the study will relate changes in health to wealth changes and to expectations about unemployment and other stresses. Most of these analyses will be duplicated on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, taking advantage of different evolutions of the crisis and somewhat richer information on health in ELSA.