An Integrated System for the Epidemiological Application of Earth Observation Tec

描述(申请人提供)：在这份续期申请中，我们将扩展我们正在进行的研究，在这项研究中，我们成功地利用卫星遥感开发了环境模型，用于绘制和预测蚊媒疾病风险图。正如在目前的项目中一样，我们的总体目标是通过开发新的生物信息学技术和工具来缩小地球观测技术与生物医学领域之间的差距。我们新项目的具体目标是通过将我们现有的环境监测系统与公共卫生监测直接联系起来，扩大我们在疟疾风险的环境建模和预测方面的工作。我们的总体假设是，将早期预警(基于环境风险因素)和早期发现(基于疾病病例模式)相结合的综合疾病预测方法将比单独使用任何一种方法更有效，从而产生对公共卫生决策者有用的更准确的预测。在这次更新中，我们选择把重点放在埃塞俄比亚高地，因为我们认为，这种疾病预测方法有可能对该区域的公共卫生决策产生特别重大的影响。我们将处理以下具体目标：SA1：开发一个基于网络的疟疾流行预测计算机系统，将疟疾病例的流行病学监测与来自地球观测卫星的环境监测数据结合起来；SA2：测试新的建模和决策支持方法，将基于季节性气候异常、对环境变化的滞后反应以及疟疾流行的早期发现的多种风险指标结合起来；SA3：开发和测试接口，用于上传监测数据和在低带宽环境中将疟疾风险指标可视化。我们将通过开发纳入疾病和环境监测综合评估(流行病)计算机系统的疫情预测来实现这些目标。该系统将把我们现有的用于环境监测的East Web软件与用于自动提交、处理和汇总疟疾监测数据的新子系统联系起来。将开发和测试新的算法，以利用环境风险因素和疟疾指标趋势的组合来生成预测，并将创建公共卫生接口，以便利从低带宽环境中的最终用户获取数据并向最终用户传播结果。将通过我们与地区卫生局和当地一个非政府组织的现有伙伴关系，在埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区的哨所网络实施和测试流行病系统。我们预计，通过这项研究获得的新工具和科学知识最终将推广到其他地区，以改进对未来疟疾流行的预测，支持预防、控制和最终消除疟疾的努力。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In this renewal application, we will expand upon our ongoing research in which we successfully used satellite remote sensing to develop environmental models for mapping and forecasting mosquito-borne disease risk. As in the current project, our overarching goal is to reduce the gap between earth observation technologies and the biomedical fields by developing novel bioinformatics techniques and tools. The specific objective of our new project is to extend our work on the environmental modeling and forecasting of malaria risk by directly linking our existing environmental monitoring system with public health surveillance. Our overarching hypothesis is that an integrated approach to disease forecasting that combines elements of early warning (based on environmental risk factors) and early detection (based on patterns of disease cases) will be more effective than either approach alone, resulting in more accurate predictions that are useful to public health decision makers.. For this renewal we have chosen to focus on the Ethiopian Highlands because we believe that this approach to disease forecasting has the potential to make a particularly significant impact on public health decision-making in this region. We will address the following specific aims: SA1: Develop a web-based computer system for malaria epidemic forecasting that integrates epidemiological surveillance of malaria cases with environmental monitoring data from earth observing satellites; SA2: Test novel modeling and decision support approaches that combine multiple risk indicators based on seasonal climatic anomalies, lagged responses to environmental variability, and early detection of malaria epidemics; SA3: Develop and test interfaces for uploading surveillance data and visualizing malaria risk indicators in low-bandwidth environments. We will achieve these aims by developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. This system will link our existing EAST Web software for environmental monitoring with new subsystems for automated submission, processing, and summarization of malaria surveillance data. Novel algorithms will be developed and tested to generate forecasts using a combination of environmental risk factors and trends in malaria indicators, and a public health interface will be created to facilitate data acquisition from and dissemination of results t end users in low bandwidth environments. The EPIDEMIA system will be implemented and tested at a network of sentinel sites in the Amhara region of Ethiopia through our existing partnerships with the regional health bureau and a local NGO. We expect that the new tools and scientific knowledge gained through this research will ultimately be extendible to other regions to improve forecasting of future malaria epidemics support efforts toward malaria prevention, control, and ultimately elimination.