LATE-CAREER RESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY AND THE TIMING OF RETIREMENT

项目#1：后期职业研究生产力和退休时间 科学创新在美国经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用， 特别是产生巨大的健康益处。然而，美国科学劳动力正在迅速老龄化， 越来越重要的是，要了解创新产出如何随年龄而变化，特别是随着科学家的接近， 退休现有的工作一般集中在早期的职业生涯。该项目将扩大我们的 通过研究创新产出在后期的变化，了解年龄与创造力的关系。 职业生涯以及退休方式如何影响创新。我们将开始（i）记录以下趋势： 职业生涯后期的创新（以科学出版物、专利和引用为衡量标准）;（ii） 估计我们创新劳动力的老龄化将如何影响创新速度。我们将继续 估计（iii）预期退休年龄如何影响创新，以及（iv）退休年龄的变化如何 政策将影响创新的产生。我们将使用我们的估计来模拟可能的变化 在退休政策中（例如从固定收益到固定缴款养老金计划的转变） 将影响研究人员何时退休和创新的产生。 生产力下降的研究人员可能有提前退休的动机，因此为了解决 反向因果关系的可能性，我们将使用退休年龄的变化， 计划，如在特定年龄或服务年数的急剧中断和差异， 大学退休计划的特点）以及政府资金的突然变化 科学研究（例如刺激支出）。 相关性（参见说明）： 美国科学工作者正在老龄化，而此时对医疗服务的需求正随着人口的增长而激增。 婴儿潮一代的老龄化该项目将通过研究支持的预测为政策提供信息， 退休计划和政府科学支出的变化将影响生物医学的生产。 研究在未来。

Project #1: Late-Career Research Productivity and the Timing of Retirement Scientific innovation is playing an increasingly important economic role in the US, and biomedical science in particular generates large health benefits. However, the US scientific workforce is aging rapidly, making it increasingly important to understand how innovative output varies by age, particularly as scientists approach retirement. Existing work has generally focused on the early career. This project will expand our understanding of the age-creativity relationship by studying how innovative output changes during the late career and how the approach of retirement affects innovation. We will begin by (i) documenting trends in innovation (as measured by scientific publications, patents, and citations) in the late career and (ii) estimating how the aging of our innovative workforce will affect the rate of innovation. We will go on to estimate (iii) how the expected age of retirement affects innovation and (iv) how changes in retirement policies will affect the production of innovation. We will use our estimates to simulate how possible changes in retirement policies (such as the movement from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution pension plans) will affect when researchers retire and the production of innovation. Researchers whose productivity is declining may have an incentive to retire early, so to address the possibility of reverse causation we will use variation in retirement age arising from features of retirement programs such as sharp discontinuities at particular ages or number of years of service and differences in the features of retirement programs across universities) as well as abrupt changes in government funding for scientific research (e.g. stimulus spending). RELEVANCE (See instructions): The US scientific workforce is aging at the very time when the demand for health services is surging with the aging of the baby-boom cohort. This project will inform policy with research-backed predictions for how changes in retirement programs and government science spending will affect the production of biomedical research in the future.