Weather research for optimum integration of wind power into a hydro-dominant power grid

在鼓励绿色能源发展的大胆举措中，BC Hydro(一家皇冠公司)受到政府的指示，从获得批准的私人风能公司那里购买电力。由于风力发电不可靠且不能储存，BC水电必须对其占主导地位的水电生产进行最佳补偿，以适应间歇性的风力发电。鉴于涉及的利益相关者各不相同，面对不确定的天气预报，这种优化是极其困难的。我们的研究将改进水电站水库流域的降雨预报，并改进风力涡轮机发电场的风力预报，以便BC Hydro工程师能够更好地优化他们的生产。我们将使用多个天气预报计算机代码来预测不同天气结果的可能性。这样的概率预测允许更安全、更经济的电力生产。特别是，我们将致力于改进概率预报：(1)参与一个实地项目，以更好地测量从太平洋接近加拿大的天气；(2)校准计算机化的天气预报，以提供准确的概率信息；以及(3)开发一种新的方法，从计算机化预报中消除预报误差。然后，我们将使用这些改进的预报为BC Hydro提供每个水电和风能设施的每日风力和降雨量预报。随着这些预报数据的积累，我们将计算不同发电站之间的平均时差和天气强度。使用这些统计平均值，我们将对水电和风能场地的复杂网络进行经济分析，使不列颠哥伦比亚省水电工程师能够优化电力生产。

In a bold move to encourage green-energy development, BC Hydro (a Crown corporation) has been directed by the government to purchase power from approved private wind-energy companies. Because wind power is unreliable and cannot be stored, BC Hydro must optimally compensate its dominant hydroelectric production to accommodate the intermittent wind-power. Given the diverse stakeholders involved, this optimization is extremely difficult in the face of uncertain weather forecasts. Our research will provide improved rain forecasts for hydroelectric reservoir watersheds, and improved wind forecasts at wind-turbine farms, so that BC Hydro engineers can better optimize their production. We will use multiple weather-forecast computer codes to predict the chance of different weather outcomes. Such probabilistic forecasts allow safer and more economical power production. In particular, we will work to improve the probabilistic forecasts by: (1) participating in a field program to better measure the weather that approaches Canada from over the Pacific; (2) calibrating the computerizedweather forecasts to give accurate probability information; and (3) developing a new way to remove forecast errors from computerized forecasts. We will then use these improved forecasts to provide BC Hydro with daily wind and precipitation forecasts for each hydroelectric and wind-energy facility. As data from these forecasts accumulate, we will calculate average time differences and weather intensities between the different power sites. Using these statistical averages, we will do economic analyses for the complex network of hydro- and wind-energy sites, to allow BC Hydro engineers to optimize power production.