Numerical Weather Prediction Advances for a Growing Canadian Economy

地球的气候系统正在发生变化。对加拿大人来说，不断变化的气候为经济增长提供了机会，以满足我们不断增长的人口的需要。我们的研究重点是通过使用计算机天气预报来促进经济发展。***在越来越多的预报应用中，数值天气预报（NWP）模式的计算机预报正在取代人工预报员。在UBC，我们有NWP研究所需的工具：高性能计算集群、NWP程序和相关专业知识。每天，我们实时运行62个NWP模型成员的集合，我们将其组合成几个短期（1到5天）和中期（6到30天）的预测。这些预报使我们能够根据自然的日常天气变化来有力地测试我们的研究，而不是专注于不具代表性的理想案例研究。我们也用这些先进的工具来教育下一代科学家。***我们广泛的研究计划侧重于为不断增长的加拿大经济推进中短期NWP。这包括改进交通（公路、铁路、航运）、天气相关灾害（洪水、泥石流、雪崩、风暴、森林火灾烟雾）和清洁能源（水电、风能、太阳能、生物质能）在加拿大西部等复杂地形上的天气预报方法。***我们建议：1)为NWP模型设计新的动态核心；2)针对山地地形设计新的NWP行星边界层参数化；3)通过创建新的后处理方法来修正与NWP空间分辨率相关的误差，降低山区关键位置的预报误差；4)利用云计算平台优化NWP集成规模；5)改善影响空气质量的森林火灾烟雾的集合预报；6)分析近期与天气有关的灾害，以提高认识和预测；7)建立水资源模型，用于资源管理和洪水预报。意义：随着人口的增长，越来越多的加拿大人将：***1)争夺能源和水资源。我们的NWP研究将使公用事业公司能够更好地将各种清洁能源整合到电网中，并提供清洁水。***2)生活在边缘地理区域，如洪泛平原、沿海地区和陡峭的山坡。面对气候变化，我们改善天气相关灾害预测的工作将使加拿大人成为幸存者，并使地方政府能够提供更好的分区和应急准备计划。作为生活和商业的副产品产生空气污染。我们在改善空气质量预报方面的工作将支持加拿大人的健康，同时使工业蓬勃发展。

Earth's climate system is changing. For Canadians, a changing climate provides an opportunity for economic growth to serve the needs of our growing population. Our research focuses on enhancing the economy through the use of computerized weather prediction.*** Computerized forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are replacing human forecasters in more and more forecast applications. At UBC we have the tools needed for NWP research: high--performance-computing clusters, NWP programs, and associated expertise. Every day we run an ensemble of 62 NWP model members in real time that we combine into several short--range (1 to 5 day) and medium-range (6 to 30 day) forecasts. These forecasts allow us to robustly test our research against natural daily weather variability, rather than focusing on unrepresentative ideal case studies. We also use these advanced tools to educate the next generation of scientists.*** Our broad research program focuses on advancing short- and medium--range NWP for a growing Canadian economy. This includes improving weather-forecast methods for transportation (highway, rail, shipping), weather--related disasters (floods, debris flows, avalanches, windstorms, forest-fire smoke), and clean energy (hydro, wind, solar, biomass) over complex terrain such as in Western Canada.*** We propose to: 1) devise new dynamical cores for NWP models; 2) design new NWP planetary-boundary-layer parameterizations for mountainous terrain; 3) reduce forecast errors at key locations in the mountains by creating new post--processing methods to correct errors associated with NWP spatial resolution; 4) optimize NWP ensemble size using cloud-computing platforms; 5) improve ensemble forecasts of forest--fire smoke as affects air quality; 6) analyze recent weather-related disasters to improve understanding and prediction; and 7) create a water model for resource management and flood forecasting.*** Significance: As population increases, more Canadians will be:***1) competing for energy and water resources. Our NWP research will enable utility companies to better integrate variable clean-energy sources into the power grid, and to provide clean water.***2) living in marginal geographic regions such as floodplains, coastal areas, and steep mountain slopes. Our work to improve prediction of weather--related disasters in the face of climate change will empower Canadians to be survivors, and will allow local governments to provide better zoning and emergency--preparedness plans.***3) producing air pollution as a byproduct of life and commerce. Our work on improving air--quality forecasting will support the health of Canadians while allowing industries to thrive.