Models of chemical fate in the environment

现代社会受益于大量化学品的使用，包括石油和石油副产品，溶剂，农药，药品和阻燃剂。大多数是相对无害的，对人类健康或我们所依赖的环境不构成威胁。然而，有些化学品是有问题的，因为它们可能会持续很长一段时间（例如多氯联苯），它们可能会在鱼类和鸟类等生物体中积累（例如滴滴涕），它们可能毒性很大（例如二恶英），并且它们可能会长距离迁移到极地地区（例如，六氯苯）。而不是等待问题出现（到那时可能已经太晚了！）最好是采取主动，在问题化学品污染环境和造成不良影响之前就确定这些化学品。实现这一目标的最佳方法是使用数学模型来预测这些化学品在环境中的行为以及它们可能对生态系统造成的风险。本研究项目的目的是开发此类模型，通过将其预测与实际观察进行比较来测试这些模型以确保其可靠性，并将其传播给用户社区。这一直是并将继续是特伦特大学加拿大环境模拟中心的重点。该中心目前通过因特网向近40个国家传播模型，每月约500个，更具体地说，该项目将侧重于四个领域。第一个是区域环境（例如加拿大的一个省）中的化学归宿，包括土壤、水、沉积物和空气，以及植物群和动物群（包括人类）的接触和风险。其次是可能导致食品和非现场位置污染的农药的命运。第三是室内环境，这是很重要的，因为大部分时间都是在通风受限的条件下在室内度过的。最后是评估一种化学品是否可能远距离迁移，特别是迁移到加拿大北极地区的模型。

Modern society benefits from the use of a large number of chemicals including petroleum and petroleum by-products, solvents, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and fire retardants. Most are relatively innocuous and pose no threat to the health of humans or the environment on which we depend. Some, however, are problematic in that they may persist for long periods of time (e.g. PCBs), they may accumulate in organisms such as fish and birds (e.g. DDT), they may be very toxic (e.g. dioxins) and they may be transported long distances to polar regions (e.g., HCB). Rather than wait for problems to emerge (by which time it may be too late!) it is preferable to be proactive and identify problem chemicals before they contaminate the environment and cause adverse effects. The best way to accomplish this is to use mathematical models to predict how these chemicals will behave in the environment and what risk they may pose to the ecosystem.The purpose of this research project is to develop such models, test them to ensure reliability by comparing their predictions against actual observations, and to disseminate them to the user-community. This has been and continues to be the focus of the Canadian Environmental Modelling Centre at Trent University. The Centre currently disseminates models via the internet at a rate of about 500 per month to nearly 40 countries.More specifically, this project will focus on four areas. The first is chemical fate in regional environments (e.g. a Canadian province) including soils, water, sediments, and air, and exposure and risks to flora, and fauna including humans. Second is the fate of pesticides that may cause contamination of food and off-site locations. Third is indoor environments which are important because much time is spent indoors under conditions of restricted ventilation. Finally are models that will assess if a chemical is likely to be transported long distances, especially to the Canadian Arctic.