Decision support models for forest management planning

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This proposal describes a research program with long-term objectives of developing the necessary decision support models in forest management planning, using them to solve management problems, and providing specialized education and training to graduate students and practitioners.      The research program's short-term objectives are to explore two problem areas.  The first problem area requires the formulation of a stochastic optimization model, and I propose using the integration of simulation and optimization, increasingly referred to as "simulation optimization".   I am interested in using this model to advance our knowledge in two project areas.  First, the algorithmic implications of using this method deserve inquiry.  Second, I am also interested in using the model to gain insights into the nature of the problem per se; i.e., of planning timber harvests in an uncertain environment.  The novelty of my proposed research is that, although stochastic planning models have been developed, none have been spatially explicit; and spatially explicit planning models are increasingly required to plan for biodiversity objectives.      In the second problem area, the deep uncertainty associated with estimates of future climate change requires that planned adaptation employ robust strategies; i.e., strategies that perform well when compared with the alternatives across a wide range of plausible futures.  The deployment of genetic material in an environment of uncertain change is analogous to the investment in assets in an uncertain market. For this reason, my approach will be to use a seed portfolio based on Markowitz' portfolio optimization model in selecting an optimal portfolio of seed sources to deploy in an environment of uncertain climate change.  The seed portfolio model will form the basis of my approach to delineating the deployment boundaries of genetically improved stock. Solutions to these problems and those that continue to evolve are desperately needed by planners across Canada.