Population viability of Ontario woodland caribou in relation to habitat-mediated movement patterns, forest harvest, and climate change

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A key uncertainty regarding recovery of woodland caribou in Ontario is how much habitat is enough to manage caribou extinction risk at an acceptable level. Population Viability Analysis, often termed PVA, can be very useful in estimating how extinction risk should vary in relation to habitat composition at the landscape scale over time horizons that are meaningful for resource managers. By identifying complex ecological linkages and trade-offs between habitat-based factors influencing demographic rates, the risk of extinction can be reduced to tolerable levels when balanced against other land uses. Our project is designed to develop models of movement and habitat use by caribou, wolves, and moose, based on satellite telemetry data. These movement sub-models will be linked into a spatially-explicit PVA model for Ontario caribou, incorporating realistic patterns of migration, habitat selection, demography, predation risk, forest succession, and disturbance due to both fire and