Population viability of Ontario woodland caribou in relation to habitat-mediated movement patterns, forest harvest, and climate change

关于安大略林地驯鹿恢复的一个关键不确定性是有多少栖息地足以将驯鹿灭绝风险控制在可接受的水平。种群生存力分析，通常被称为PVA，可以是非常有用的，在估计灭绝的风险应该如何变化，在景观尺度上的栖息地组成随着时间的推移，是有意义的资源管理者。通过确定影响人口增长率的生境因素之间的复杂生态联系和权衡，在与其他土地使用相平衡时，灭绝的风险可以降低到可容忍的水平。我们的项目旨在根据卫星遥测数据开发驯鹿、狼和驼鹿的运动和栖息地利用模型。这些运动子模型将被链接到一个空间上明确的PVA模型安大略驯鹿，结合现实的迁移模式，栖息地选择，人口，捕食风险，森林演替，和干扰，由于火灾和

A key uncertainty regarding recovery of woodland caribou in Ontario is how much habitat is enough to manage caribou extinction risk at an acceptable level. Population Viability Analysis, often termed PVA, can be very useful in estimating how extinction risk should vary in relation to habitat composition at the landscape scale over time horizons that are meaningful for resource managers. By identifying complex ecological linkages and trade-offs between habitat-based factors influencing demographic rates, the risk of extinction can be reduced to tolerable levels when balanced against other land uses. Our project is designed to develop models of movement and habitat use by caribou, wolves, and moose, based on satellite telemetry data. These movement sub-models will be linked into a spatially-explicit PVA model for Ontario caribou, incorporating realistic patterns of migration, habitat selection, demography, predation risk, forest succession, and disturbance due to both fire and