Modeling of extreme precipitation processes in consideration of climate variability and climate change

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Extreme rainfalls and the resulting floods were the number one cause of deaths and property damage by natural disasters in many regions. In particular, a number of extreme storm events with significant impacts on the environment and socio-economic activities have occurred during the last decade across Canada, including those severe storms causing the heavy flood in Saguenay region in Quebec in 1996 and the critical Red River flooding event in Manitoba in 1997. Moreover, there is now a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is changing in ways that are likely to have a profound impact on human society and the natural environment over the coming decades. Furthermore, it has been recognized that changes in the frequency and magintude of extreme climate events are likely to have more substantial and widespread impacts on the environment and human activities than changes in the mean climate. There is hence an urgent need to improve our understanding on the occurrence of extreme storms in the coming decades, and to develop new tools for improving our ability to assess more accurately the impacts of such extremes on Canada's social, economic, and natural environment. The overall objective of the proposed research plan is therefore to advance scientific knowledge on the occurence of extreme storms, and to improve society's ability to manage the risks associated with these extremes by creating and developing improved tools and methods for producing high-quality impact assessments. The proposed research topic is important because it deals almost exclusively with issues that have been received considerable attention in Canada and abroad due to substantial investment involved. It is expected that results of this study will ultimately help engineers to develop more cost-effective methods for design and management of water resource systems, and will assist policy-makers in formulating more robust policies to mitigate the impacts of these extreme events, thereby contributing to national economic competitiveness, the effectiveness of public policy, and the quality of life.