Modeling of urban hydrologic processes in the context of climate variability and climate change

气候变率和气候变化背景下的城市水文过程建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05443
• 负责人: Nguyen, VanThanhVan
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=660903
• 关键词: Modeling; urban; hydrologic; processes; context

The proposed research aims at the overarching scientific question: “How to predict accurately at the urban basin scale changes in precipitation, temperature, and runoff processes caused by climate variability and climate change?” ******To address this critical question, the main challenge is to develop an “integrated climate-urban hydrologic processes modeling framework” that could accurately describe the linkages between climate variables at global or regional scales and hydrologic processes at a local site or over an urban area. This necessitates the development of downscaling procedures for linking coarse-resolution climate model outputs down to much finer spatial grids, and even virtually point values if changes in local urban processes are to be assessed. Further, the time scales required for urban hydrologic modelling are usually less than one day. Another critical issue is the current limited ability of existing climate models in providing accurate and reliable precipitation projections since these models still do not contain an adequate description of the precipitation governing processes at the relevant scales for urban areas. Hence, to develop this integrated downscaling framework, the proposed research program involves three main components: (i) Modelling of sub-daily temperature processes: a multivariate statistical model will be developed for simulating hourly temperature extremes at many sites concurrently in the context of climate change; (ii) Modelling of sub-daily rainfall processes: stochastic models will be developed for simulating sub-daily rainfall series at a single site as well as at different sites concurrently; and (iii) Modelling of urban runoff process:a decision support tool will be developed to provide an integrated linkage between temperature and precipitation models and urban runoff model. This decision support tool will be used to examine the sensitivity of runoff characteristics to the changes in rainfall and temperature extremes due to climate variability.******It is expected that results of this research will enhance our collective understanding of climate variability and their effects in urban regions, will provide essential tools for developing more cost-effective design procedures and more accurate vulnerability assessment methods, and ultimately will help policy-makers in developing appropriate adaptive strategies for effective management of our urban water systems. The proposed research deals exclusively with issues that have been received considerable attention due substantial investment involved. For instance, climate variability can stress Canada's urban water systems leading to water supply shortages or disruptions, and extreme storms and floods have often caused severe substantial property and extensive economic damages in urban areas (e.g., recent devastating floods in the City of Calgary and in the City of Toronto in 2013).

拟议的研究旨在解决一个首要的科学问题：“如何在城市流域尺度上准确预测气候变率和气候变化引起的降水、温度和径流过程的变化？” ******为了解决这个关键问题，主要挑战是开发一个“综合气候-城市水文过程建模框架”，该框架可以准确描述全球或区域尺度的气候变量与当地或城市地区的水文过程之间的联系。这就需要开发降尺度程序，将粗分辨率的气候模型输出连接到更精细的空间网格，如果要评估当地城市过程的变化，甚至可以连接到虚拟的点值。此外，城市水文建模所需的时间尺度通常小于一天。另一个关键问题是现有气候模型目前提供准确可靠的降水预测的能力有限，因为这些模型仍然没有充分描述城市地区相关尺度的降水控制过程。因此，为了开发这种综合降尺度框架，拟议的研究计划包括三个主要组成部分： (i) 次日温度过程建模：将开发一个多元统计模型，用于在气候变化的背景下同时模拟许多地点的每小时极端温度； (ii) 次日降雨过程建模：将开发随机模型来模拟单个地点以及同时在不同地点的次日降雨系列； (iii) 城市径流过程建模：将开发决策支持工具，以提供温度和降水模型与城市径流模型之间的集成联系。该决策支持工具将用于检查径流特征对气候变化引起的降雨和极端温度变化的敏感性。******预计这项研究的结果将增强我们对气候变化及其对城市地区影响的集体理解，将为开发更具成本效益的设计程序和更准确的脆弱性评估方法提供必要的工具，并最终将帮助政策制定者制定适当的适应性策略，以有效管理我们的城市 供水系统。拟议的研究专门针对因涉及大量投资而受到广泛关注的问题。例如，气候变化会给加拿大的城市供水系统带来压力，导致供水短缺或中断，而极端风暴和洪水往往会在城市地区造成严重的重大财产损失和广泛的经济损失（例如，最近卡尔加里市和多伦多市2013年发生的毁灭性洪水）。