Assessment of Water Availability in the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin over the past 2 Millennia

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Projecting future water availability is one of the main challenges of water management. The objectives of this project are to provide data on long-term patterns in water availability from the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin (WRDB) in northwestern Ontario, a region which is heavily reliant on water resources for hydrological power generation, as well as other societal demands. In order to prepare for future extremes, long-term planning must be based on realistic estimates of historical lows in water availability. However, these long-term lows are currently only based on the 80-100 year instrumental records, which are not representative of the full range in extremes that occurred prior to the 20th century. Although many regions of Canada are projected to have increased precipitation under increasing CO2 conditions, there is great uncertainty in both the temporal and spatial distribution of future precipitation based on model projections. Empirical data from the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in the WRDB suggests that without a substantial increase in precipitation lake levels, stream flows and groundwater levels will all decline under a warmer climate. Our recent findings from the ELA, suggests that water availability has been at much lower extremes than any seen during the 20th century. Our proposed research will provide information on the spatial coverage of water availability within the WRDB over the past ~2000 years (a period influenced by climatic processes similar to today) to determine the frequency, magnitude and duration of past lows in water availability, and whether these lows have occurred synchronously across the WRDB. A more adequate assessment of the extremes in water availability will enable water managers to better prepare adaptation strategies for the future. The methods developed in this proposal will be applicable to many other regions in Canada. The three MSc students trained in this multi-disciplinary field will be able to work in a diversity of fields (e.g., science teachers, conservation authorities, park managers, environmental consulting companies, water-management positions). Highly trained personnel in environmental assessment, and particularly in water management, will continue to be in high demand.