Applying spatial epidemiology and ecological models to understand the abundance and social organization of folivorous primates

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My long-term goal is to work at the interface of behaviour and ecology to develop general principles concerning ecological determinants of the abundance and social organization of primates. I will build on my prior research on nutritional requirements and parasite disease ecology in Kibale National Park, Uganda and (1) explore a relatively new field coined spatial epidemiology. The sudden appearance of diseases like SARS and swine flu, the devastating impacts that diseases like Ebola have had on both human and wildlife communities, and the immense social and economic costs created by viruses like HIV underscore our need to understand the ecology of disease transmission. This project will determine how ecological factors lead to spatial variation in elevated transmission probability and influence the spread of diseases. We will develop Agent-Based Models to evaluate how future environmental and climate change could influence disease dynamics. In addition, I will (2) continue to refine socioecological models for folivores; and, with 12 years of data in hand at the end of the granting period, I can start to look at fitness consequences of social strategies. Red colobus, our long-term focal species, provides a species where a relatively low level of aggression is seen in conditions of limiting resources. This implies that this species has evolved coping strategies to deal with competition, thus we will study what makes this a "peaceful" primate. Finally (3) I will build on the 40+ years of data I have on the ecology of Kibale (21+ years are mine) to quantify ecological change.