Assessment of Water Availability in the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin over the past 2 Millennia

温尼伯河流域近两千年来的水资源可用性评估

• 批准号: 363714-2007
• 负责人: Cumming, Brian
• 金额: $ 1.58万
• 依托单位: Queen's University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2011-01-01 至 2012-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=483326
• 关键词: Assessment; Water; Availability; Winnipeg; River

Projecting future water availability is one of the main challenges of water management. The objectives of this project are to provide data on long-term patterns in water availability from the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin (WRDB) in northwestern Ontario, a region which is heavily reliant on water resources for hydrological power generation, as well as other societal demands. In order to prepare for future extremes, long-term planning must be based on realistic estimates of historical lows in water availability. However, these long-term lows are currently only based on the 80-100 year instrumental records, which are not representative of the full range in extremes that occurred prior to the 20th century. Although many regions of Canada are projected to have increased precipitation under increasing CO2 conditions, there is great uncertainty in both the temporal and spatial distribution of future precipitation based on model projections. Empirical data from the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in the WRDB suggests that without a substantial increase in precipitation lake levels, stream flows and groundwater levels will all decline under a warmer climate. Our recent findings from the ELA, suggests that water availability has been at much lower extremes than any seen during the 20th century. Our proposed research will provide information on the spatial coverage of water availability within the WRDB over the past ~2000 years (a period influenced by climatic processes similar to today) to determine the frequency, magnitude and duration of past lows in water availability, and whether these lows have occurred synchronously across the WRDB. A more adequate assessment of the extremes in water availability will enable water managers to better prepare adaptation strategies for the future. The methods developed in this proposal will be applicable to many other regions in Canada. The three MSc students trained in this multi-disciplinary field will be able to work in a diversity of fields (e.g., science teachers, conservation authorities, park managers, environmental consulting companies, water-management positions). Highly trained personnel in environmental assessment, and particularly in water management, will continue to be in high demand.

预测未来的可用水量是水管理的主要挑战之一。该项目的目标是提供安大略省西北部温尼伯河流域（WRDB）水资源供应的长期模式数据，该地区的水文发电以及其他社会需求严重依赖水资源。为了为未来的极端情况做好准备，长期规划必须基于对可用水量历史低点的实际估计。然而，这些长期低点目前仅基于 80-100 年的仪器记录，并不能代表 20 世纪之前发生的极端情况的全部范围。尽管在二氧化碳浓度增加的情况下，预计加拿大许多地区的降水量将会增加，但根据模型预测，未来降水量的时间和空间分布都存在很大的不确定性。来自WRDB实验湖区（ELA）的经验数据表明，如果降水湖水位没有大幅增加，在气候变暖的情况下，溪流流量和地下水位都会下降。我们最近从 ELA 获得的研究结果表明，水资源供应量远低于 20 世纪的极端水平。我们提出的研究将提供过去约 2000 年（受类似于今天的气候过程影响的时期）WRDB 内可用水的空间覆盖范围的信息，以确定过去可用水量低点的频率、幅度和持续时间，以及这些低点是否在整个 WRDB 同步发生。对水资源供应极端情况进行更充分的评估将使水资源管理者能够更好地制定未来的适应战略。本提案中制定的方法将适用于加拿大的许多其他地区。在这个多学科领域接受培训的三名理学硕士学生将能够在多个领域工作（例如科学教师、保护机构、公园管理者、环境咨询公司、水管理职位）。环境评估方面，特别是水管理方面，训练有素的人员将继续受到大量需求。