The Madden-Julian oscillation and intraseasonal weather forecasting in Canada

加拿大的马登-朱利安振荡和季节内天气预报

• 批准号: 355860-2008
• 负责人: Lin, Hai
• 金额: $ 1.09万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2012-01-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=496998
• 关键词: Madden; Julian; oscillation; intraseasonal; weather

A useful extended range weather forecast of 7-30 days is of considerable social and economical importance. However, in contrast to short range weather forecasting and seasonal prediction, the study and development of prediction methods for this range have been weak. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a strong large-scale tropical signal that has a relatively regular 30-50 day period. The intraseasonal timescale of the circulation and convective anomalies produced by the MJO suggests the potential for significant impact on forecasts beyond one week. Growing evidence indicates that the importance of the MJO to a subseasonal forecast is just like that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to a seasonal prediction.

一个有用的7-30天的大范围天气预报具有相当重要的社会和经济意义。然而，与短期天气预报和季节预报相比，对这一范围的预报方法的研究和开发一直比较薄弱。马登-朱利安振荡(MJO)是一种较强的大尺度热带信号，具有相对规则的30-50天周期。MJO产生的环流和对流异常的季节内时间尺度表明，可能会对一周后的预报产生重大影响。越来越多的证据表明，MJO对于次季节预报的重要性，就像厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)对于季节性预报的重要性一样。